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朝鲜问题 [复制链接]

Rank: 8Rank: 8

发表于 2017-4-17 15:31:17 |显示全部楼层
朝鲜问题

朝鲜是美苏量大阵型斗争的产物。
朝鲜实现的体制是斯大林模式,中国参与了维护朝鲜体制的斗争。
现在的情况是,苏联解体,中国在经济上放弃斯大林模式,所以朝鲜本身的存在就是一个怪物。
毛派(年老的毛派)对朝鲜有一种感情,似乎朝鲜是他们的世界唯一洁净的地方
朝鲜的正当逻辑或者斯大林主义的逻辑本应该走上苏联和中国的道路,这种逻辑没有消失,比如张成驿派。
但是朝鲜出现了一个世袭政权,这个政权依赖于传统,依赖于过去,就是说金家王朝化导致它需要维持体制。
苏联和中国并不保障朝鲜了,但是为什么,美帝似乎非致朝鲜于死地呢,对美帝在利益上到底有什么好处呢?
说朝鲜是中国的一个屏障,冷兵器时代或者50年前或许是对的,但是现在就完全不一样了
美帝对韩国和日本承诺核保护,为什么中国不能对朝鲜承诺进行核保护呢,若此,朝鲜完全不需要发展核武器,这个逻辑成立吗
我认为不成立,因为美帝对韩国的保护主要在常规战争中发挥的,而核保护的前提是敌对国家首先使用核武器,但是核武器几乎是不可能被使用的,所以常规战争的保护尤其重要,而对于日本来说,核保护毫无意义,因为日本人能很快制造出核武器进行反击。假设中国承诺对朝鲜进行核保护,但是前提是美国要动用核武器对方朝鲜,而美国根本不需要动用核武器对付朝鲜,所以常规战争下你中国能保护朝鲜吗,这些是单纯就军事而言,显然不能,所以朝鲜发展核武器的目的不是对抗核武器而是对抗常规战争。
从制度上而言,中国和朝鲜体制完全不同了,中国倒更加和美国靠近,所以体制上保护朝鲜,就制度而言,中国没有兴趣,朝鲜发展核武器,对中国(统治阶级)来说毫无好处
不过美帝太偏执,敌视朝鲜,导致朝鲜要发展核武器,你美国和日本韩国不喜欢和朝鲜经济往来,那就不要往来,但是你也不要去管朝鲜了,中国愿意往来就往来,如此朝鲜也不会发展核武器,但是美帝试图推翻金家王朝,这是才是矛盾的核心。是美帝的冷战心态,和意识形态偏执,沙特阿拉伯这种封建体制美国也能接受,为什么不能接受朝鲜体制,很简单,和朝鲜和平交往对美帝没有好处,敌视朝鲜在意识形态上对美帝有好处
我认为只要美帝放弃敌视朝鲜,朝鲜反而更加可能走上苏联和中国的道路,美帝并不愿意如此。就是说美帝和平演变策略的话,在朝鲜,斯大林主义的逻辑反而有利于朝鲜走出体制。
对于朝鲜,我原来就认为只有两条路,一个世界社会主义革命成功,朝鲜国内进行政治革命,融入世界社会主义,或者世界社会主义革命迟迟不来,朝鲜走上中国和苏联的道路,走上资本主义(当然现在的朝鲜也不是社会主义),这都是符合生产力发展的要求的,朝鲜维持现在的体制最大的受益者就是金家为代表的统治层(这里要说明一下中国和苏联走上资本主义道路不代表生产力发展要求,而朝鲜不同,他在孤立下因为自己周旋的余地很小不易发展生产力)

朝鲜当下的特殊矛盾就是敌视他的美帝和它国内的金家王朝的矛盾产物。没有美帝的敌视,它没有理由发展核武器,没有金家王朝,他就走资本主义道路了和韩国一起了。

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Rank: 8Rank: 8

发表于 2017-4-18 00:06:40 |显示全部楼层
不单纯是金家的问题。

由于中国资本主义迅速发展,朝鲜已经错过了在九十年代纳入世界资本主义体系的时机(廉价劳动力制造业)

从世界资本积累的角度,纳入朝鲜已经无利益,而对于南朝鲜更是大包袱

金家纳入世界资本主义体系无望,只能发展核武器求生存

朝鲜内部体制虽然落后,但在客观上站在反美帝第一线,搅乱了整个世界资本主义秩序,客观上有利于世界革命

如果大乱,百万人不幸付出生命代价,一切责任必须由美帝中资负责

中资自己贪而蠢。朝鲜这个马蜂窝,岂能乱捅?谁捅加速谁灭亡。美帝利令智昏,中资不但不能从世界资本主义大局出发,果断制止,反而纵容,这是败相已成

俄罗斯当然不希望朝鲜出乱子,但是俄罗斯估计无力量在东西两线同时对抗美帝。

现在有可能制止战争的因素,估计还是美帝体制内较“清醒”力量。华尔街日报称,即使朝鲜进行新的核试验,美国也未必立即动武。

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Rank: 8Rank: 8

发表于 2017-4-18 00:23:38 |显示全部楼层
保罗 克莱格 罗伯茨 美国里根时期的前助理财政部长,认为美国现在的战争冒险政策完全是疯了

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/ ... n-over-the-horizon/

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Rank: 8Rank: 8

发表于 2017-4-18 00:24:06 |显示全部楼层
Is That Armageddon Over The Horizon?

Paul Craig Roberts

The insouciance of the Western world is extraordinary. It is not only Americans who permit themselves to be brainwashed by CNN, MSNBC, NPR, the New York Times and Washington Post, but also their counterparts in Europe, Canada, Australia, and Japan, who rely on the war propaganda machine that poses as a media. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-39573526

The Western “leaders,” that is, the puppets on the end of the strings pulled by the powerful private interest groups and the Deep State, are just as insouciant. Trump and his counterparts in the American Empire must be unaware that they are provoking war with Russia and China, or else they are psychopaths.

A new White House Fool has replaced the old fool. The New Fool has sent his Secretary of State to Russia. For what? To deliver an ultimatum? To make more false accusations? To apologize for the lies?

Consider the audacity of Secretary of State Tillerson. He has spent the week prior to his visit to Moscow supporting incredible lies and false allegations that Assad of Syria used chemical weapons with Russia’s permission, which justified Washington’s unambigious war crime of a military attack on a country with which the US has not declared war. Less than 100 days in office, and Trump is already a war criminal along with the rest of his warmonger government.

The entire world knows this, but no one says it. Instead, Tillerson, who has been heavy with lies and threats has the confidence to go to Moscow to tell the Russians that they have to hand over Assad to the American Uni-Power.

Tillerson’s mission demonstrates the complete, total unreality of the world in which Washington lives. Try to imagine Tillerson’s arrogance. If you had been bad-mouthing and threatening strong, important people, would you feel comfortable going over to their house to have dinner with them? Does Tillerson think that now that Russia has largely freed Syrtia of US-supported ISIS, Russia is going to turn Syria over to Washington?

Is he going to tell Lavrov that he didn’t really mean all those nasty lies he told about Russia, but the zionist neoconservatives made him do it? That he is not really in charge, just a tool of the Anglo-Zionist Empire?

Is Tillerson going to apologize for White House press secretary Sean Spicer’s statement that Assad, Russia’s ally, is more evil than Hitler? http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-39573063

Maybe Tillerson is going to ask for asylum and get on the winning side.

Stephen Cohen, one of the few remaining Americans knowledgeable about Russia, told the two CNN presstitutes and the warmonger Col. Leighton, one of the “experts” that the presstitutes roll out to pronounce the propaganda against Russia, that Russia was preparing for hot war. It seems to have gone over the heads of the CNN presstitutes and colonel. Whose payroll are they on?  http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/46838.htm

The Russian leaders, who, unlike the Western liars, speak the truth, have said clearly that Russia will never again fight a war on her own territory. The Russians couldn’t put it more clearly. Provoke a war, and we will destroy you on your own territory.

When you watch the president and government in Washington, the European governments, especially the idiots in London, the Canadian and Australian governments, you can only marvel at the total stupidity of “Western leadership.” They are begging for the end of the world.

And the presstitutes are at work driving toward the end of life. Huge numbers of Western peoples are being prepared for their demise, and they are protected from the realization by their insouciance.

Washington is so arrogant and lost in its own hubris, that Washington does not understand that the years of clear as crystal lies about Russia and Russian intentions and deeds have convinced Russia that Washington is preparing the populations of the United States and Washington’s captive peoples in West and East Europe, Canada, Australia, and Japan for a US pre-emptive nuclear strike against Russia. Published US war plans against China have convinced China of the same.

If not for war, what else is the change in US war doctrine for? George W. Bush abandoned the stabilizing role of nuclear weapons by moving them from a retaliatory function to a nuclear first strike. Then he pulled out of the anti-ballistic missile treaty concluded by President Richard Nixon. Now we have US missile sites positioned on Russia’s borders. We tell the Russians the lie that the missiles are to prevent an Iranian nuclear ICBM strike against Europe. This lie is told, and accepted by the puppets in Europe, despite the known, incontestable fact that Iran has neither nukes nor ICBMs. But the Russians do not accept it. They know it is another Washington lie.

When Russia hears these flagrant, blatant, obvious lies, Russia understands that Washington intends a preemptive nuclear attack on Russia.

China has reached the same conclusion.

So, here is the situation. Two countries with nuclear forces expect that the insane fools who rule the West are going to attack them with nuclear weapons. What are Russia and China doing? Are they begging for mercy?

No. They are preparing to destroy the evil West, a collection of liars and war criminals, the like of which the world has never previously experienced.

It is the US, the washed-up joke of a “uni-power” that after 16 years is still unable to defeat a few thousand lightly armed Taliban in Afghanistan, that needs to ask for mercy.

The reckless and irresponsible war talk in the US government and presstitute media and among NATO and Washington’s vassals must stop immediately. Life is in the balance.

Putin has shown amazing patience with Washington’s lies and provocations, but he cannot risk Russia by trusting Washington, whom no one can trust. Not the American people, not the Russian people, not any people.

By jumping on the Deep State’s propaganda wagon the liberal/progressive/left is complicit in the march toward Armageddon.

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Rank: 8Rank: 8

发表于 2017-4-18 00:24:07 |显示全部楼层
Is That Armageddon Over The Horizon?

Paul Craig Roberts

The insouciance of the Western world is extraordinary. It is not only Americans who permit themselves to be brainwashed by CNN, MSNBC, NPR, the New York Times and Washington Post, but also their counterparts in Europe, Canada, Australia, and Japan, who rely on the war propaganda machine that poses as a media. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-39573526

The Western “leaders,” that is, the puppets on the end of the strings pulled by the powerful private interest groups and the Deep State, are just as insouciant. Trump and his counterparts in the American Empire must be unaware that they are provoking war with Russia and China, or else they are psychopaths.

A new White House Fool has replaced the old fool. The New Fool has sent his Secretary of State to Russia. For what? To deliver an ultimatum? To make more false accusations? To apologize for the lies?

Consider the audacity of Secretary of State Tillerson. He has spent the week prior to his visit to Moscow supporting incredible lies and false allegations that Assad of Syria used chemical weapons with Russia’s permission, which justified Washington’s unambigious war crime of a military attack on a country with which the US has not declared war. Less than 100 days in office, and Trump is already a war criminal along with the rest of his warmonger government.

The entire world knows this, but no one says it. Instead, Tillerson, who has been heavy with lies and threats has the confidence to go to Moscow to tell the Russians that they have to hand over Assad to the American Uni-Power.

Tillerson’s mission demonstrates the complete, total unreality of the world in which Washington lives. Try to imagine Tillerson’s arrogance. If you had been bad-mouthing and threatening strong, important people, would you feel comfortable going over to their house to have dinner with them? Does Tillerson think that now that Russia has largely freed Syrtia of US-supported ISIS, Russia is going to turn Syria over to Washington?

Is he going to tell Lavrov that he didn’t really mean all those nasty lies he told about Russia, but the zionist neoconservatives made him do it? That he is not really in charge, just a tool of the Anglo-Zionist Empire?

Is Tillerson going to apologize for White House press secretary Sean Spicer’s statement that Assad, Russia’s ally, is more evil than Hitler? http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-39573063

Maybe Tillerson is going to ask for asylum and get on the winning side.

Stephen Cohen, one of the few remaining Americans knowledgeable about Russia, told the two CNN presstitutes and the warmonger Col. Leighton, one of the “experts” that the presstitutes roll out to pronounce the propaganda against Russia, that Russia was preparing for hot war. It seems to have gone over the heads of the CNN presstitutes and colonel. Whose payroll are they on?  http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/46838.htm

The Russian leaders, who, unlike the Western liars, speak the truth, have said clearly that Russia will never again fight a war on her own territory. The Russians couldn’t put it more clearly. Provoke a war, and we will destroy you on your own territory.

When you watch the president and government in Washington, the European governments, especially the idiots in London, the Canadian and Australian governments, you can only marvel at the total stupidity of “Western leadership.” They are begging for the end of the world.

And the presstitutes are at work driving toward the end of life. Huge numbers of Western peoples are being prepared for their demise, and they are protected from the realization by their insouciance.

Washington is so arrogant and lost in its own hubris, that Washington does not understand that the years of clear as crystal lies about Russia and Russian intentions and deeds have convinced Russia that Washington is preparing the populations of the United States and Washington’s captive peoples in West and East Europe, Canada, Australia, and Japan for a US pre-emptive nuclear strike against Russia. Published US war plans against China have convinced China of the same.

If not for war, what else is the change in US war doctrine for? George W. Bush abandoned the stabilizing role of nuclear weapons by moving them from a retaliatory function to a nuclear first strike. Then he pulled out of the anti-ballistic missile treaty concluded by President Richard Nixon. Now we have US missile sites positioned on Russia’s borders. We tell the Russians the lie that the missiles are to prevent an Iranian nuclear ICBM strike against Europe. This lie is told, and accepted by the puppets in Europe, despite the known, incontestable fact that Iran has neither nukes nor ICBMs. But the Russians do not accept it. They know it is another Washington lie.

When Russia hears these flagrant, blatant, obvious lies, Russia understands that Washington intends a preemptive nuclear attack on Russia.

China has reached the same conclusion.

So, here is the situation. Two countries with nuclear forces expect that the insane fools who rule the West are going to attack them with nuclear weapons. What are Russia and China doing? Are they begging for mercy?

No. They are preparing to destroy the evil West, a collection of liars and war criminals, the like of which the world has never previously experienced.

It is the US, the washed-up joke of a “uni-power” that after 16 years is still unable to defeat a few thousand lightly armed Taliban in Afghanistan, that needs to ask for mercy.

The reckless and irresponsible war talk in the US government and presstitute media and among NATO and Washington’s vassals must stop immediately. Life is in the balance.

Putin has shown amazing patience with Washington’s lies and provocations, but he cannot risk Russia by trusting Washington, whom no one can trust. Not the American people, not the Russian people, not any people.

By jumping on the Deep State’s propaganda wagon the liberal/progressive/left is complicit in the march toward Armageddon.

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Rank: 8Rank: 8

发表于 2017-4-18 00:24:38 |显示全部楼层
Paul Craig Roberts (born April 3, 1939) is an American economist, journalist, blogger and former civil servant.[3] He is best known as a journalist specializing in economic affairs from an anti-establishment, liberal conservative perspective.[4]

He reached the height of his government career when he became the United States Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy under President Reagan in 1981.[5] In office he and his staff successfully combated the stagflation (price-inflation and stagnation) then plaguing the American economy. Tighter monetary policy was used to restrain inflation, in addition lower marginal tax rates were used to increase the rewards to work and investment.[6] In recognition, he was awarded the US Treasury’s Meritorious Service Award for “outstanding contributions to the formulation of United States economic policy”.[7]

A strong critic of the Bush (and later Obama) administrations' handling of the War on Terror, he has taken positions strongly at odds with mainstream politicians: harshly criticizing the ineffectiveness, severity and high rates of incarceration associated with the War on Drugs; excessive police violence and use of SWAT teams against civilians; and Congressional approval of increased government surveillance associated with the War on Terror age, which he views as fundamental threats to the liberties enshrined in the US constitution, opening the way for an oligarchic police state to be imposed upon the US population.[8]

A vocal critic of neoliberalism, the Federal Reserve and the financialization of the economy, his articles have addressed and criticized outsourcing, economic deregulation, privatisation of social services, quantitative easing, Wall Street finance fraud and lax enforcement of environmental protection laws.[9]

A supporter of the human rights of the population of the West Bank, he has criticized Israel’s policies and harsh actions against the Palestinians[10] as well as speaking out against what he calls the Israel Lobby's malign influence within US politics and academia.[11]

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Rank: 8Rank: 8

发表于 2017-4-18 09:38:03 |显示全部楼层
这个世界除了“资本主义道路”就没有其他道路可走了?太主观了。

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