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乌克兰军事形势(3月29日) [复制链接]

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发表于 2022-3-30 02:31:28 |显示全部楼层

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发表于 2022-3-30 02:31:58 |显示全部楼层

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发表于 2022-3-30 02:48:43 |显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 远航一号 于 2022-3-30 02:55 编辑

以下分析来自:

https://www.moonofalabama.org/20 ... ration-unfolds.html

加上我的少量解释和发挥

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发表于 2022-3-30 02:55:08 |显示全部楼层
The Russian military operation in Ukraine began with a rather small force of some 150.000 men against a much larger (including reservist and territorial forces) Ukrainian force of some 400.000. The Russian force used maneuver warfare to fix the larger Ukrainian forces into place. It attacked on a large front and threatened major population concentrations.

俄军在战争之初投入兵力约15万,乌军正规军+法西斯民兵+预备役约40万。在数量劣势的条件下,俄军在宽大战线上发动攻势,同时威胁多个人口中心,以运动战将乌军大部牵制在几个不同的方向,以便于各个击破。

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发表于 2022-3-30 02:59:24 |显示全部楼层
The Russian operations started with the destruction of the Ukrainian command and control network. Over four weeks its navy, its airforce, its radars and air defenses and a huge number of its armored vehicles were destroyed. Throughout the last week fuel depots all over the Ukraine were attacked and destroyed over night. Ukraine's large ammunition depots are gone. Military production and repair facilities have likewise been destroyed. The Ukraine is no longer able to move large numbers of troops between the various fronts. Its army has lost its mobility.

在过去四个星期,俄军乌军指挥控制系统,基本消灭了乌克兰空军和海军,摧毁了其雷达和防空系统,并消灭了大量乌军装甲部队。

在过去一个星期,俄军摧毁了乌军大量燃料和弹药储存及兵工生产和修理设施。乌军已经无法在不同战线之间做大规模调动。乌军失去了机动性。

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发表于 2022-3-30 03:01:41 |显示全部楼层
While this was ongoing threats to Kiev, Odessa and other large Ukrainian cities held significant numbers of Ukrainian troops in place and prevented reinforcements to move to the east. There units from the Donetzk and Luhansk republics attacked the 60,000 strong main force of the Ukrainian army to keep it in place.

大量乌军被牵制在基辅、敖德萨等地。同时,由于顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克人民武装的进攻,顿巴斯地区的乌军主力6万人无法脱离东部战场。

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发表于 2022-3-30 03:02:40 |显示全部楼层
This allowed Russian forces from Crimea and from the Russian border in the north to move into positions that will now enable them to envelope the east.

这就使得从克里米亚、俄乌边境出发的俄军有可能进入到可以包围东部乌军主力的位置。

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发表于 2022-3-30 03:04:18 |显示全部楼层
The move east and west of Kiev was, as I have said for a while, a feint to fix mobile Ukrainian units around their capital city. The feint is no longer need as the Ukrainian army has now lost its mobility. The Russian troops around Kiev and Chernigov will be mostly withdrawn probably up to Chernobyl where a part of them may take defensive positions while most of the units deployed around Kiev will be moved back to Belarus and Russia for new operations in eastern Ukraine.

俄军在基辅西侧和东侧的行动服务于战役欺骗的目的。目前,战役欺骗的任务已经完成。

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发表于 2022-3-30 03:04:49 |显示全部楼层
Fighting around Kharkiv is ongoing. Ukrainian counterattacks on that front have failed and the next phase of the war will see increased activities there.

乌军在哈尔科夫方向的所谓反攻已经失败。

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发表于 2022-3-30 03:05:47 |显示全部楼层
The move on the west side of the Dnjepr river towards the important industrial area of Kryvyi Rih and on to Dnipro has been relatively slow. The move on the eastern side of the Dnjepr towards Dnipro has been at the same speed. Note that the western and eastern parts of those fronts are at the same level. They are well coordinated. The next phase will probably see more movement on the eastern side of the river.

俄军在第聂伯河东西两侧继续齐头并进,虽然进展较为缓慢。

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