美国统治集团激烈辩论乌克兰战争前景及美国对策

远航一号

It isn’t that Ukraine will literally run out of live bodies, but that the quality of its armed forces, enlisted men as well as officers, has deteriorated. Critical parts of the civilian economy will collapse as manpower is shifted to the military.

乌军士兵质量下降；随着人力抽调到军队，关键民用部门将面临崩溃

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This expert put Ukraine’s “unrecoverable” casualties (killed or seriously wounded) at two-thirds of Russia’s: 120,000 Ukrainian dead or seriously wounded versus 150,000 to 200,000 Russians.

“专家”认为，乌军不可挽回损失（阵亡和重伤）约12万，俄军阵亡和重伤达15万至20万。

编注：这些估计是自欺欺人的

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With a much larger military, Russia will win a war of attrition. One Ukrainian battalion lost 600 men in January, received 700 replacements, and then lost 800 men in February—a 60% casualty rate over two months.

俄军能够赢得消耗战。乌军一个营，在今年一月份损失了600人，补充了700人，到了二月份又损失了800人；两个月中伤亡60%。

编注：一个营约1000人，所以这个两个月60%的伤亡率不知道怎么算出来的。如果按照乌军前线兵力20万、每两个月损失60%算，乌军每两个月损失12万人，每年损失约70万人。

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以色列情报机关摩萨德对俄乌双方兵力和损失的估计：

http://infobrics.org/post/37687/

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Russia, with 418,000 soldiers involved:

- 23 fixed-wing aircraft;

- 56 helicopters;

- 200 drones;

- 889 tanks and armored vehicles;

- 427 artillery systems;

- 12 air defense systems

- 18,480 killed and severely wounded in action;

- 44,500 with recoverable injuries;

- 323 captured.

截至今年一月中旬，俄军投入兵力约42万，阵亡及重伤18000，轻伤45000，被俘300，另损失作战飞机20余架、直升机50余架、坦克和装甲车约900辆、火炮400多门。

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Kiev regime forces, with 734,000 soldiers (+100,000 reservists) and an unspecified number of NATO officers, soldiers and mercenaries involved:

- 302 fixed-wing aircraft;

- 212 helicopters;

- 2.750 drones;

- 6,320 tanks and armored vehicles;

- 7.360 artillery systems;

- 497 air defense systems;

- 157,000 killed in action;

- 234,000 recoverable injuries;

- 17,230 captured;

- 234 NATO officers killed in action (US and UK);

- 2,458 NATO soldiers killed in action (Germany, Poland, Lithuania, etc.)

- 5,360 mercenaries killed in action.

截至今年一月中旬，基辅当局投入兵力73万，另有10万预备役及北约军官、特种兵和雇佣兵。乌军阵亡及重伤16万，轻伤23万，被俘17000。此外，俄军击毙北约军官200多人、北约士兵约2500人、北约雇佣兵约5400人。乌军损失作战飞机300架、直升机200余架、坦克和装甲车6300辆、火炮7400门、防空系统约500套。   

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回到《亚洲时报》文章：

The prospects for a breakthrough to end the stalemate along the Line of Contact are poor, the rapporteur continued. The expected Ukrainian Spring offensive is one of the most anticipated maneuvers in military history, and Russia has had plenty of time to prepare defensive positions. Ukraine would need 650 modern main battle tanks and 1,000 armed personnel carriers to make a difference, in the view of one expert.

乌克兰取得突破的前景不妙。预期中的乌克兰春季攻势也许是军事史上最被人们广为期待的行动之一。俄军有充足时间做好准备。要取得战果，乌克兰需要650辆现代化的主战坦克和1000辆装甲车。

编注：让人想起1943年被一再拖延的德国法西斯“堡垒”战役计划

马儿在驰骋

远航一号 发表于 2023-3-21 00:33
回到《亚洲时报》文章：

乌克兰版春季觉醒行动？

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Another former senior US commander argued that the United States should send 1,000 Abrams M1 tanks to Ukraine, although he didn’t explain from where they might be obtained. Ukraine should receive weapons that can destroy targets deep inside Russia, he added, and the US “should get rid of the artificial boundary that says Ukraine can’t strike into Russia. Russia is part of the battlefield.”

一名高级军官主张，美国应送给乌克兰1000辆M1式坦克（但无法说明这些坦克从哪里来）。该军官称，美国应该抛开一切限制，给乌克兰可以打击到深入俄罗斯后方的武器。

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America has political constraints on aid to Ukraine, a former senior Pentagon official objected: If we cannot provide large amounts of aid two years from now, we are better off cutting our losses now.

原五角大楼一名官员指出，如果我们无法在两年内提供大量援助，不如现在就及时止损。