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张宏良:不要误导人们认识乌克兰 [复制链接]

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发表于 2014-2-23 00:17:50 |显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 远航一号 于 2014-2-23 01:28 编辑

张宏良:不要误导人们认识乌克兰作者:张宏良 发布时间:2014-02-22 来源:张宏良的博客
当今中国在政治思想上推翻新自由主义统治之后,民族主义和国家主义正迅速崛起为意识形态领域里的主导力量,如果中国民族主义和国家主义不代表人民利益,不与大众民主和共同富裕的社会主义相结合,那么中国也会迟早走上乌克兰道路。


  如果说上次乌克兰的橙色革命,是美国等西方国家操纵的结果,是新自由主义和普世价值主导的结果,那么这次乌克兰动乱,则是狹隘民族主义主导的结果。如果继续用上次橙色革命的逻辑来解释现在的乌克兰动乱,完全是别有用心的误导中国,结果只能把中国也引上乌克兰道路。

  虽然现在的乌克兰动乱背后有美国和西方的操纵,并且是新自由主义的两极分化改革,把乌克兰放到了动乱的火药桶上,但是,导致动乱的直接导火索,则是背弃人民利益的单纯民族主义。在这里请注意,与中国民族主义不同,欧洲民族主义往往与人民利益相对立,完全是寡头政治的工具。

  这次乌克兰最为明显,上次橙色革命的结果,就是形成了精英寡头统治,总理本身就是最大的寡头资本家。由于西方操纵的新自由主义,既不代表人民利益也不代表民族利益;而欧洲左翼又是教条主义,只代表旧的官僚利益,同样不代表人民利益;这就是乌克兰人民在别无选择的情况下,只能借用民族主义(注意是借用而不是选择),作为反抗两极分化的武器,如同当年希特勒借用国家社会主义,来解决两极分化一样。

  所以这次乌克兰动乱,是乌克兰三大政治力量——新自由主义、民族主义和传统社会主义——都不代表人民利益的结果。人民只能借助寡头之间的矛盾,表达自己的利益诉求。这是乌克兰人民十分悲哀的地方。

  当今中国在政治思想上推翻新自由主义统治之后,民族主义和国家主义正迅速崛起为意识形态领域里的主导力量,如果中国民族主义和国家主义不代表人民利益,不与大众民主和共同富裕的社会主义相结合,那么中国也会迟早走上乌克兰道路。

  当今中国要想避免乌克兰的悲剧,关键取决于中国左翼力量(包括党内外体制内外),必须高举三大复兴的旗帜,即社会主义复兴,中华民族复兴和东方文化复兴。只有坚持社会主义复兴才能保障人民的根本利益;只有倡导中华民族复兴才能凝聚人民的根本力量;只有东方文化复兴才能使自己成为当今世界的进步力量。所以,三大复兴的内在联系不可偏废。没有三大复兴的理论纲领,中国左派乃至中国人民就只能是一盘散沙,既使组织起来,也只能象乌克兰那样成为被精英寡头利用的盲目的自发力量。

  这就是有人制造左翼分裂,放弃三大复兴目标的根本政治目的。他们所采取的手段,就是架空毛泽东思想和社会主义,把毛泽东思想和社会主义完全抽象化。针对这种情况下,我们一定要把毛泽东思想和现实政治斗争结合起来,让广大人民知道,毛泽东思想的政治精髓,就是继续革命;而继续革命的目的,就是要用大众政治取代精英政治,实现政治上的大众民主和经济上的共同富裕。这既是当今世界人民的共同要求,也是21世纪社会历史发展的基本潮流。

  国内外所有极右势力之所以极端仇恨大众民主和共同富裕,原因就在于此,就在于他们知道这八个字一旦成为人民的自觉追求,就一定会成为埋葬他们的根本力量。



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发表于 2014-2-23 00:50:16 |显示全部楼层
张宏良这个文章写得好。在社会主义幻灭的地方,民族主义必然要抬头。有的朋友,例如这里的某些托派朋友,却把这个次序搞颠倒了。他们以为是民族主义抬头而引起的社会主义失败。并不是的。而是,民族主义其实总是在那里,不过社会主义失败而形成民族主义往坏的方向发展。社会主义胜利,也有民族主义在其中,但是,却是往好的方向发展的。

但是,“有人制造左翼分裂”,这个话就不对了。左翼分裂,主要不是因为人家制造分裂,而是左翼根本就没有团结起来的内在力量。在这种情况下,要强行统一(似乎统一到他们乌有之乡那里),事实上更坏。现在的情势,要求最广泛发动群众,特别是要群众都想什么是社会主义。不需要统一,但是,当人群中相当大一部分人在想这个问题时,转折点就来到了。

另外,不宜用大众政治,而应该用人民民主。这是有严格区别的概念。

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发表于 2014-2-23 03:00:08 |显示全部楼层
木水 发表于 2014-2-23 00:50
张宏良这个文章写得好。在社会主义幻灭的地方,民族主义必然要抬头。有的朋友,例如这里的某些托派朋友,却 ...

把关键词中国和毛泽东去掉,随便换个欧洲国家的名字。 张宏良这篇文章妥妥地就是第二国际某个社会党在1914年前的说法。不信者自己去查书。

所以,我说今天多数毛派的口号和诉求,还没超过一战前的第二国际们。。。。

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发表于 2014-2-23 07:57:59 |显示全部楼层
我更倾向于是亲西方的新自由主义者利用民族主义向倾向传统社会主义势力的进攻,这从乌克兰肇事者大批拉倒列宁塑像和禁止共产党活动并捣毁200多地方党部的现象可以看出。中俄都已经资本主义复辟,只从经济利益和地缘政治来考量对乌政策,难免不顾此失彼。冬奥会后,俄罗斯会不会有动作魄力,就很难说了。

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发表于 2014-2-23 19:02:55 |显示全部楼层
不要臆想了,而且既然”闷头发大财“,只要欧盟这边一承认,某国政府立即会跟进承认,和俄罗斯的态度没啥直接关系。

至于三分之一的乌克兰是否会服从普京的俄罗斯,这也是美好的幻想,大多数乌克兰人是不想做沙俄的小弟,因为历史的看没有吃到过好果子,能混进人均1万美元以上的欧洲最好。波兰如今都过得阔得多。

假如,亲俄派真有力量,早就动员几万人上街的,现在东部重镇都是亲欧盟的几千人上街,亲俄的几百人上街。季莫申科也出来了,就这局势,寡头换寡头而已。。。。

没有真正的左翼力量,任他城头变换大王旗

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发表于 2014-2-24 00:15:53 |显示全部楼层
赤旗 发表于 2014-2-23 03:00
把关键词中国和毛泽东去掉,随便换个欧洲国家的名字。 张宏良这篇文章妥妥地就是第二国际某个社会党在191 ...

我没有时间去查书。如果你有资料,请给我们看,也是好的学习。但是,问题的关键不在这里,而在于“实事求是”。如果现在的社会情况和那时没有本质的变化,人的思想也不会有根本不同。我们不能因为以前的人们这样想,我们就一定要有完全不同的想法。正确的还是实事求是,研究客观的东西,制定正确的主观的东西。

回到民族主义的问题上,民族主义是客观存在,不会在近期内消亡,而只会随着阶级斗争的形势而产生出不同的形式出来。社会主义运动要做的,把民族主义好的一面发扬,把坏的一面引导至无害,这才是正确的做法。完全无视民族主义,期望国际阶级斗争的口号一喊,所有的民族的东西就马上消散了,那才是完全不现实的,也是真正有害的想法。

总之,民族主义是现实政治中的一个巨大力量,谁也无法无视。如果社会主义运动不能正确引导,就必然被资产阶级充分利用。乌克兰的例子就是很典型的。

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发表于 2014-2-24 00:25:25 |显示全部楼层
赤旗 发表于 2014-2-23 03:00
把关键词中国和毛泽东去掉,随便换个欧洲国家的名字。 张宏良这篇文章妥妥地就是第二国际某个社会党在191 ...

你别忘了马克思的文章全都在1914年以前。
你说来说去,对社会的认识不是也没有超过老江“闷头发大财”的水平吗

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发表于 2014-2-24 00:27:47 |显示全部楼层
赤旗 发表于 2014-2-23 19:02
不要臆想了,而且既然”闷头发大财“,只要欧盟这边一承认,某国政府立即会跟进承认,和俄罗斯的态度没啥直 ...

那些“混进欧洲”的东欧国家现在有几个“阔多了”的,妓女多多了还差不多。

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发表于 2014-2-24 01:12:36 |显示全部楼层
Orlov: Shock over Ukraine

[Update: I am pushing this live a few days early, because the Ukrainian situation is evolving so rapidly. One political corpse (Yanukovych) is out; apparently he has fled to Russia. Another political corpse (Tymoshenko) has been hastily rehabilitated and is ready to be put on the ballot for elections in May. Question is, Will there still be a country for her to (pretend to) run? Financial reserves are down to a few days, federal structures are being dismantled throughout the country, regional governors are fleeing, and a default on some €60 of Ukrainian bonds, many held by Russian banks, seems likely. Could this be just the kind of financial contagion needed to finally pop the ridiculous US equities bubble? At least two Ukrainian provinces are openly talking secession; one (Crimea) wants to immediately join Russian Federation. A question for US State Dept. flunkies and EU functionaries: What does that do to your geopolitical calculus? At risk are five nuclear power plants and a lot of Russian gas that transits Ukraine on its way west. Ukraine is shaping up to be a lot like Yugoslavia, except with more than twice as many people, lots of crazed street fighters who think they now own the place, and a role critical to European energy security. If you aren't in shock about this, then you haven't been paying attention.]

I’ve been receiving a lot of emails asking me what I thought was happening in Ukraine. It took me a while to formulate an opinion, but what I now think is happening is this: a complete and utter failure of politics on every level.

Everyone has failed: the EU representatives, the US State Department with its Victoria “Fuck the EU” Nuland, the Yanukovych government, its political opponents, and the Kremin. And now they are all in shock and nobody knows what to do. Except for the protesters, who do know what to do: continue to protest. Most of them don’t even know what it is they are protesting, but, in essence, they are protesting the very existence of their country, which is made up of two parts: Eastern Poland, which is Ukrainian-speaking and predominantly Catholic, and Western Russia, which is Russian-speaking and predominantly Orthodox. The “Russians” outnumber the “Ukrainians” two to one. The ultimate resolution to the crisis lies in partitioning the country. Nobody has the stomach to even talk about it—yet. But until that happens we will continue being subjected to this strange spectacle, where every single actor in Ukraine does everything possible to undermine the country’s political system. Deep down, the Ukrainians don’t want there to be a different government in Kiev—they don’t want there to be a government in Kiev at all.


I now turn it over to Andrey Tymofeiuk, a Kiev resident who posted the following on his Facebook page, in obscenity-riddled Russian. (The Russian language is remarkably rich in obscenities, which pack tremendous expressive power but don’t translate into English with its paltry collection of four-letter words.) I think he provided a good, information-rich summary of the situation from all the angles, his graduate-level potty-mouth notwithstanding, so please give him props. Translation and clean-up are mine.



I think that the current situation is such that everyone is in terrible shock over what’s happening.

The EU representatives are shocked most of all. They were playing at being skillful diplomats, who stooped to work with the barbarous dictator of a third-world country. He was supposed to quiver with anticipation over his handout, in the form of an EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, which would have allowed him to don the mantle of the great Euro-integrator and win the 2015 elections.

Gazing down from their lofty diplomatic perch, these experts were blindsided when the barbarous dictator suddenly decided to do a bit of arithmetic, spotted a flaw in the deal (Ukrainian national bankruptcy) and swiftly decided to take his 46 million slaves away from the EU and give them to Moscow instead. And then, due to their ridiculous bureaucracy and complete lack of understanding of Ukrainian reality, they allowed an initially peaceful protest to develop into something like civil war.


The EU representatives really don’t need a bloody quagmire with a humanitarian crisis, hundreds of thousands of refugees, terrorist attacks, tanks on the streets and other such joys, and they will try to do all they can to prevent it, even if this means that the thick-headed barbarous dictator has to stay in power. But the problem is that the barbarous dictator seems to have lost his mind.

Now the EU representatives will have to answer some very difficult questions from television viewers back home. Such as: “Why are the people waving EU flags wearing Nazi emblems? Are we supporting Nazis?” or “If they are peaceful, then why are they throwing Molotov cocktails at policemen and taking them hostage?” That’s just for starters. Here is a more serious question: “Do we really want 46 million of these violent barbarians to join the EU?” And how about this one: “What makes you think that the five Ukrainian nuclear power plants will remain safe if the country falls into chaos?” Just one more, but it’s a doosie: “If Ukraine becomes ungovernable, how are we going to get our fix of Russian natural gas next winter? Are we going to freeze to death?” But the EU representatives may not have to field such questions much longer because their diplomatic careers may be at an end. After all, they haven’t been too effective, have they? To transform a perfectly peaceful protest into a bloody mess is not exactly the pinnacle of European diplomacy. A few mid-level al Qaeda operatives could have managed the job just as well.

Ukrainian opposition leaders are in shock as well. They were all ready to use the energy of the demonstrators to advance their own political ambitions—but now these ambitions seem rather beside the point. They are politicians, not field commanders, and now they don’t know what to do. Their task is an immensely intricate one: on the one hand, they must act like ardent revolutionaries, or the crowd will turn against them, haul them off the podium and string them up; on the other hand, they have to placate the Europeans and somehow make them believe that they still have influence, that this is still a peaceful protest, and that they are not leading illegal combatants to overthrow lawful authority, but legitimate, peaceful protesters. They still hope that the Europeans will give them jobs in the new puppet government once this is all over. So far, this is not working, and they themselves no longer believe that they are in control of anything. They sign agreements to end hostilities, and hostilities continue.

The barbarous dictator, Yanukovych, is in shock too. His luck has been quite good until now, but has suddenly run out. He rose from low ranks, became one of the kingpins of the Donbass region, survived the collapse of 2004 and then got rich and built himself a palatial estate complete with a Solid Gold Toilet. Up until now he had several different ways of winning the elections in 2015. After that, he could have borrowed a page from Lukashenko’s playbook and fashioned himself into Ukraine’s president-for-life. But now that dream is gone.


He had a couple of chances to resolve the situation, but he made missteps, constantly listening to the hard-liners in his administration, and now the situation is serious and his options quite limited. After the events of February 18 there is no way for him to even claim to be a caretaker president, in power until the 2015 elections. His special forces can’t disperse the protesters. He was counting on Putin’s help, but Putin is less than pleased with his avarice and stupidity, and is noncommittal even about granting him asylum should he need to escape from Kiev. Plus, he’d be leaving behind the Solid Gold Toilet. But if he sticks around the people might hang him. He has gone from trying to survive the next election to trying to survive until the next election.

The administration’s hard-liners are in shock too. They sincerely believed that all they have to do is wave some night-sticks and the crowds will disperse. They trucked in special forces, traffic cops, criminals under their control, assorted zombie idiots, and ordered them all to attack the protesters. They tried it once—nothing; tried it again—still nothing. Protesters aren’t dispersing. Just the opposite: the more they beat on the protesters, the more their numbers grow and the more violent their tactics become. Once they saw an armored personnel carrier —a symbol of their invincibility—engulfed in flames, their hands started to shake. They don’t think that Yanukovych will abandon them, but what can he do? Order in the army? But the army people haven’t been placated with special privileges like the special forces and the police, don’t have much to lose, and could easily cross over to the other side.

The special forces are in even greater shock. A lot of them also worked as policemen, happily beating up football hooligans and collecting bribes from businessmen. And now they are confronted with a most unwelcome situation: the hooligans and the businessmen are united against them. In the beginning it was fun for them—beat on defenseless people in the center of Kiev, receive medals and money, and go home. But things have dragged on and on. The the stupider ones (the majority) are now furious, can’t understand why they haven’t been ordered to just shoot everyone, and think that Yanukovych is a sissy. The smarter ones (the minority) understand full well how dangerous that would be. First of all, success is not guaranteed and losses are likely to be high on both sides—but they have no desire to lay down their lives in defence of the Solid Gold Toilet. Second, even if they manage to suppress and disperse the protesters, the day after that they would start getting killed off one by one, because there exists a database with their names and addresses. Unlike the higher-ups in the administration, they won’t have the chance to flee abroad, and will stay to experience popular anger firsthand. They really want Yanukovych to magically return the situation to the way it was before, but the probability of this happening is dropping every day.

The Kremlin is in a bit of shock as well. They were carefully masterminding the situation, supporting the Donbass thugs, gradually ramping up their influence in Ukraine and buying up key stocks. They were methodically planning to annex half of Ukraine as a “voluntary incorporation.” But then this idiot Yanukovych started giving them a hard time trying to extort money in return for joining the Customs Union, and then he made a series of mistakes leading to the current disaster—in the middle of the Winter Olympics in Sochi, no less! The right thing to do would be to send tank columns into Donbass and Crimea, but that would put a damper on the Olympics. Plus, nothing is ready—Ukraine is not tiny Georgia, and a beautiful textbook military operation would not be possible without preparation. And a less-than-stylish military operation could lead to visa problems and international banking difficulties for the Russian leadership at a minimum, and World War III at a maximum.


The Kremlin’s propaganda people are observing the formation of the contemporary Ukrainian nation right on the streets of Kiev, and they are crying bloody tears. How are they going to be able to explain to these people that their country is not Ukraine but “Little Russia,” that their national language is made up, and that they should come home to Mother Russia and start sending their taxes to Moscow? More importantly, what about the average Russian, who is used to thinking that “nothing can be done” but is now seeing right on his television screen how for three months now special forces, armed to the teeth, haven’t been able to do much of anything to put down a ragtag mob of provincials? Thoughts are starting to course through his brain—dangerous thoughts. And the average Belarussian is even further ahead in his thinking. He has stopped looking at the television screen, has walked over to the window, and is looking at the door of the nearest government office, where local officials recently beat a bribe out of him.

The Americans and the Brits are also in shock. They couldn’t possibly care any less about the sufferings of the Ukrainian aborigines. All they care about is that Russia doesn’t grow stronger. Until recently Yanukovych seemed like a pleasant sort of dictator—not too accommodating toward the Russians, and willing to talk business with the West, about shale gas and other natural resources in particular. But now there’s a bloody mess, with Molotov cocktails, troop carriers on fire, catapults, snipers… They could dismiss Yanukovych, but then who would honor all the agreements and contracts he has signed? And who will they talk business with? The guerilla warrior nationalists from The Right Sector? The club-wielding Cossacks? And what if the Russians achieve some kind of breakthrough, absorb Russian-speaking Eastern Ukraine into the Russian Federation, and grow even stronger?

Even China has something to think about. China has its own interests in Crimea, and is not so much shocked as perplexed: why can’t the local barbarian put down his opponents? There was a similar problem in China in 1989 on Tiananmen square, but there they mowed down hundreds of unarmed students without any undue excess of emotion and it was all over quickly. The West grumbled for a bit, but then resumed economic cooperation as if nothing happened. The Chinese can’t grasp why this dictator can’t do the totally obvious thing, but in general they don’t care. Ukraine is far away, and they have no desire to play a part in Eastern European conflicts. They have more important things to think about, like winning every single medal at the Olympic games in 2016 and putting a red flag on Mars.

The active population of Kiev has been in shock for a few months now, continuously, more and more every day. But at some point shock was replaced with active enthusiasm: it is better to go carry medicine to the wounded and to hurl shingles at police on Independence Square than to watch horrors unfold on television.

The passive population of Kiev is still quietly drinking beer and poking around with social networking apps. They don’t understand what’s happening yet. But if the unofficial state of emergency (including limitations on access to the city) last a few more days—and food and drink running out—then they will end up in a state of shock more serious than anything they have ever experienced.

So, who isn’t in shock? I saw him today on Independence Square: a Cossack dressed in national garb, who, with a smile on his face, was marching off to skirmish with the special forces. In one hand he held a shield with “Glory to Ukraine” written on it, and in the other a frighteningly big club. He was singing a patriotic song. It occurred to me that this man isn’t bothered by questions such as “How will I get home tonight?” or “What if something happens to me?” or “What is going to happen to us all?”

He isn’t in shock. He no longer gives a damn, bless him.


Club Orlov

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发表于 2014-2-24 01:13:44 |显示全部楼层
懂英文的,看看上面这篇。乌克兰的乱局固然对无产阶级不利,但是现在全球资产阶级也处于混乱之中。

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