以潜伏期为单位预测新冠肺炎疫情
在本文中用到事实均来自世界卫生组织的报告[1],整理如表1(报告的截止时间为对应日期欧洲中部时间上午10:00):
报告序号(t)
|
报告截止日期
|
新冠肺炎确诊病例
|
107
|
2020/5/6
|
3588773
|
108
|
2020/5/7
|
3672238
|
109
|
2020/5/8
|
3759967
|
110
|
2020/5/9
|
3855788
|
111
|
2020/5/10
|
3917366
|
112
|
2020/5/11
|
4006257
|
113
|
2020/5/12
|
4088848
|
114
|
2020/5/13
|
4170424
|
115
|
2020/5/14
|
4248389
|
116
|
2020/5/15
|
4338658
|
117
|
2020/5/16
|
4425485
|
118
|
2020/5/17
|
4525497
|
119
|
2020/5/18
|
4618821
|
120
|
2020/5/19
|
4731458
|
121
|
2020/5/20
|
4789205
|
122
|
2020/5/21
|
4893186
|
123
|
2020/5/22
|
4993470
|
124
|
2020/5/23
|
5103006
|
125
|
2020/5/24
|
5204508
|
126
|
2020/5/25
|
5304772
|
127
|
2020/5/26
|
5404512
|
128
|
2020/5/27
|
5488825
|
129
|
2020/5/28
|
5593631
|
130
|
2020/5/29
|
5701337
|
131
|
2020/5/30
|
5817385
|
132
|
2020/5/31
|
5934936
|
133
|
2020/6/1
|
6057853
|
134
|
2020/6/2
|
6194533
|
135
|
2020/6/3
|
6287771
|
136
|
2020/6/4
|
6416828
|
137
|
2020/6/5
|
6535354
|
138
|
2020/6/6
|
6663304
|
139
|
2020/6/7
|
6799713
|
140
|
2020/6/8
|
6931000
|
141
|
2020/6/9
|
7039918
|
141
|
2020/6/10
|
7145539
|
142
|
2020/6/11
|
7273958
|
143
|
2020/6/12
|
7410510
|
144
|
2020/6/13
|
7553182
|
145
|
2020/6/14
|
7690708
|
146
|
2020/6/15
|
7823289
|
|
| |