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如果全球气温持续升高,中国广大地区将不再适合居住

2021-8-9 09:31| 发布者: 远航一号| 查看: 14823| 评论: 2|原作者: 刘琛瑞|来自: 知识分子

摘要: 根据《自然-通讯》2018年发表的研究,受气候变化和农业灌溉的共同影响,如果不加速减排的步伐,2070年至2100年,华北平原气温将多次迈过35°C湿球温度的门槛,因为极端热浪而不再宜居。

参考资料(上下滑动可浏览)

[1] https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/japan/tokyo/historic

[2] How Tokyo’s temperatures compare with past summer Olympics

https://qz.com/2040947/how-tokyos-temperatures-compare-with-past-summer-olympics/

[3]CNN. July 24 Tokyo 2020 Olympics news and results

https://edition.cnn.com/world/live-news/tokyo-2020-olympics-07-24-21-spt/h_4a916ece85e458bcabb6ae78765fcb71 

[4] The Tokyo Games Could End Up Being The Hottest Summer Olympics Ever

https://www.npr.org/sections/tokyo-olympics-live-updates/2021/07/27/1019807529/the-tokyo-games-could-end-up-being-the-hottest-summer-olympics-ever?t=1627833140253

[5] Cycling at the 2020 Summer Olympics – Women’s individual road race

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cycling_at_the_2020_Summer_Olympics_%E2%80%93_Women%27s_individual_road_race

[6] Li, C., Sun, Y., Zwiers, F., Wang, D., Zhang, X., Chen, G., & Wu, H. (2020). Rapid warming in summer wet bulb globe temperature in China with human-induced climate change. Journal of Climate, 33(13), 5697-5711.

[7]湿度大危害健康,夏季养生当除湿

https://www.sohu.com/a/105144242_349491

[8]东京奥运会防暑抗热科学指南

https://m.k.sohu.com/d/546319770?channelId=247&page=45

[9] Wet-bulb temperature from Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature

[10]WBGT指数简介 | 安全职场

http://oshaservice.com/wbgt-index/

[11] TOKYO 2020: WHAT IS THE EXTREME WEATHER POLICY?

https://www.itftennis.com/en/news-and-media/articles/tokyo-2020-what-is-the-extreme-weather-policy/#:~:text=WBGT%20temperatures%20are%20taken%20each,Weather%20Policy%20comes%20into%20effect.

[12]Imada, Y., Watanabe, M., Kawase, H., Shiogama, H., & Arai, M. (2019). The July 2018 high temperature event in Japan could not have happened without human-induced global warming. SOLA, 15A-002.

https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/sola/15A/0/15A_15A-002/_pdf/-char/en

[13] 1995 Chicago heat wave

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Chicago_heat_wave

[14]Wehner, M. F., Stone, D. A., Krishnan, H., Achuta Rao, K., & Castillo, F. (2016). The deadly combination of heat and humidity in India and Pakistan in summer 2015, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, S81–S86. http://climate.web.runbox.net/pub/WehnerM_StoneD_etalii_2016.pdf

[15] By Rajendra Jadhav, June 1,2015. Indian chicken prices surge to record as heat wave kills millions of birds           

https://www.reuters.com/article/india-heatwave-chicken-idUSL3N0YM0B920150601

[16]World Meteorological Organization (2013). The Global Climate 2001–2010, a Decade of Climate Extremes. Geneva, Switzerland: World Meteorological Organization; https://library.wmo.int/index.php?lvl=notice_display&id=15112#.YMiUgpMzb8s 

[17]Li, D., Yuan, J., & Kopp, R. E. (2020). Escalating global exposure to compound heat-humidity extremes with warming. Environmental Research Letters, 15(6), 064003.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab7d04

[18]Mora, C., Dousset, B., Caldwell, I. R., Powell, F. E., Geronimo, R. C., Bielecki, C. R., … Trauernicht, C. (2017). Global risk of deadly heat. Nature Climate Change, 7(7), 501–506. doi:10.1038/nclimate3322 https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3322?dom=prime&src=syn 

[19]Buzan, J. R., & Huber, M. (2020). Moist Heat Stress on a Hotter Earth. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 48(1).doi:10.1146/annurev-earth-053018-060100  https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/full/10.1146/annurev-earth-053018-060100

[20] 2010 Northern Hemisphere heat waves

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Northern_Hemisphere_heat_waves

[21]MOHRSS, “Distribution of The Workforce across Economic Sectors in China from 2008 to 2018,” Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/270327/ distribution-of-the-workforce-across-economic-sectors-in-china/

[22]损失工时根据John P. Dunne等人的计算方式得出(“Reductions in labour capacity from heat stress under climate warming,” 自然气候变迁, 2013年2月, 第3卷),并使 用Josh Foster等人的数据(”A new paradigm to quantify the reduction of physical work capacity in the heat,” Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise, 2019年6 月,第51卷, 第6册); 存在风险暴露的行业仅包括农业、采矿和采石业等户外行业,以及 空调普及率较低的室内行业,包括制造业、酒店业和交通运输业

[23]麦肯锡报告,引领全球应对气候变化:中国对策,2020年6月

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/sustainability/our%20insights/leading%20the%20battle%20against%20climate%20change%20actions%20for%20china%20new/leading-the-battle-against-climate-change-actions-for-china-vfnew-cn.pdf

[24] Wang, P., Leung, L. R., Lu, J., Song, F., & Tang, J. (2019). Extreme Wet Bulb Temperatures in China: The Significant Role of Moisture. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124(22), 11944-11960.

[25]Yang, S., Li, S., Chen, B., Xie, Z., & Peng, J. (2021). Responses of heat stress to temperature and humidity changes due to anthropogenic heating and urban expansion in south and north China. Frontiers in Earth Science, 9, 322.

[26] Li, C., Sun, Y., Zwiers, F., Wang, D., Zhang, X., Chen, G., & Wu, H. (2020). Rapid warming in summer wet bulb globe temperature in China with human-induced climate change. Journal of Climate, 33(13), 5697-5711.

[27]澎湃,未来“致命高温热浪”使华北平原不再宜居?气候专家有话说,2018-08-10

https://news.sina.cn/gn/2018-08-10/detail-ihhnunsq9847116.d.html?vt=4

[28] China could face deadly heat waves due to climate change

https://news.mit.edu/2018/china-could-face-deadly-heat-waves-due-climate-change-0731

[29] China health threats likely to increase due to heatwaves https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/880981

[30] https://indianpsu.com/heat-humidity-causing-wet-bulb-temperature-due-to-climate-change-can-be-fatal/

[31] 暑热指数(WBGT)指南

https://www.wbgt.env.go.jp/zh-cn/wbgt.php

[32] Passive Cooling and Human Comfort – FSEC Energy Research Center

http://www.fsec.ucf.edu/en/publications/pdf/fsec-dn-5-81.pdf

[33] https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/heatindex.shtml



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引用 锤炼旗帜 2021-8-14 01:23
乡村化或者乡村城市机械化可以阻止全球变暖吗?
引用 远航一号 2021-8-9 09:38
这是一篇十分重要的文章。文章内容进一步佐证了,如果全球变暖超过两摄氏度,全球有大约三分之一的人口将生活在不适合户外活动的地区;如果全球变暖超过四至五摄氏度,全球大部分地区将不再适合人类和牲畜生存(也无法从事包括农业劳动在内的各种户外劳动)。要挽救人类文明,必须在未来数十年中推翻资本主义制度,完成生态社会主义革命,实行有计划的零增长和负增长,才能保全人类繁衍和解放的物质基础。

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