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标题: 斯考特·里特认为，普里戈任是按照外国情报机关的意志行动 [打印本页]

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-25 01:28:45 标题: 斯考特·里特认为，普里戈任是按照外国情报机关的意志行动

本帖最后由远航一号于 2023-6-25 02:48 编辑

Scott Ritter: This is a concerted effort between Wagner, the Ukrainian intelligence service, and their Western sponsors, in particular the British... there is no doubt in my mind that Yevgeny Prigozhin is working on behalf of foreign intelligence services to collapse the government of Russia.

https://twitter.com/Navsteva/status/1672643623450472449

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-25 01:31:42

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PE2IqsAO-2M

完整视频

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-25 02:15:35

这是目前最有价值的分析之一

西方帝国主义在战场上节节失败的形势下，只有用颠覆破坏手段从内部搞垮俄罗斯

在普里戈津事件爆发同时，俄罗斯安全部门刚刚在莫斯科破获了一个乌克兰地下特务网。他们企图在普里戈津靠近莫斯科时进行破坏活动，制造恐慌，实现政权更迭。

作者: 井冈山卫士 时间: 2023-6-25 02:22:50

斯考特·里特是前美国海军陆战队情报官员，少校，曾在八十年代被派往苏联所核武器稽查人员。

他的情报和分析通常是比较可靠的。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-25 02:34:10

井冈山卫士发表于 2023-6-25 02:22
斯考特·里特是前美国海军陆战队情报官员，少校，曾在八十年代被派往苏联所核武器稽查人员。

他的情报和分 ...

Well, Now It Could Be Stated Openly...
... that Prigozhin is not only a criminal, but, highly likely, the asset of Ukie-NATO axis. A lot of things point out to that, including "rumors" (in reality, reliable information) of Prigozhin and some Wagner people providing information on positions of Russian Army to VSU. Per Wagner: I am on record--they are good storm group but as a serious force they are nothing without Russian Armed Forces. The media BS about them, as well as grossly exaggerated stories about Bakhmut have been designed primarily for the consumption of fanboys who masturbate on tactical minutiae.

著名的军事分析家马提亚诺夫也认为，普里戈津实际上是北约奸细

https://sonar21.com/u-s-military ... -a-psychotic-break/

普里戈津打着揭露俄罗斯国防部“腐败无能”的旗号并利用俄罗斯一些爱国人士对军事无知的急躁情绪把自己伪装成所谓的强硬主战派。其实他如果得逞，很可能马上就摇身一变成为投降派。他污蔑说，俄罗斯的特别军事行动完全不是因为乌克兰法西斯暴行，而是绍伊古要当元帅，就是为此做准备。连杜金都上了他的当。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-25 06:11:56

Given that we now seem to have firm details from the presidential office, I will break my silence on what has unfolded. This is of course only my opinion.

https://twitter.com/baronitaigas/status/1672701844806680576

关于普里戈任事件的长篇分析

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-25 06:12:59

To the first question: was any of this real?

I answer, yes. Without question. And not because of the purported downing of Russian aircraft by forces of PMC Wagner (this has yet to be confirmed officially and Peskov's latest statement calls the 'photos' into question).

Instead, the answer is yes because of the very real damage this has done to Russia, primarily in the diplomatic sphere, and I will elaborate more on this below. The actions of the Wagner PMC over the last 24 hours expose a serious deficiency in the country's crisis-management.

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-25 06:13:43

Perhaps this is to be expected given the strains of the war in Ukraine, but it is still unforgivable. It raises questions not only about the long-term stability of Russia (which has financial implications) but also the competence of its security agencies.

Although any criticism of the services in Rostov are misplaced. They were heavily outnumbered by Prigozhin's mob, and under the circumstances, not engaging them was the prudent thing to do.

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-25 06:14:23

We can also say unequivocally the dissolution of Wagner PMC (which now seems inevitable) severely harms relationships built across Africa in particular with local allies. The PMC cannot be trusted to fulfil any functions on the continent after this incident.

"But it was so short!" - Failed coups often are
"But there wasn't much killing!" - This was a risk, but always unlikely given you were asking brother to shoot brother on both sides here, some who may have seen combat together.

In the face of the costs, a 'psyop' is inconceivable

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-25 06:15:00

The last refuge of the 'psyop' theory (which is no different to the 'imaginary coup to consolidate state power' theory) is that some kind of other more serious coup was about to be launched, and this fake one was launched to derail it, but I very much doubt this.

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-25 06:15:06

So, we arrive at the second question.
What are we to make of Yevgeny Victorovich and his actions? To Russia, there is only one word that can adequately describe this man now, and that word is traitor. On this point, an important caveat must be made:

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-25 06:15:32

The fighters of PMC Wagner, at least the lower ranks, are unlikely to be culpable to a significant extent. Coups more often than not involve quite a bit of deception even against the people holding the guns. But several senior commanders, most ex-military, are culpable.

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-25 06:16:25

What occurred over the last 24 hours was, when we take into account the entire range of effects, the worst crime against the country since probably the 1990s. That it took place during a conflict of an existential nature makes it all the more egregious.

Prigozhin has achieved all of these negative effects for his country, not to mention destroying the organization he claimed to represent. What motivated him? On this, I think the evidence available leaves very little room for speculation.

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-25 06:17:08

As many have pointed out, this attempted coup (and that is exactly what it was) did not occur "spontaneously", "in a fit of rage or madness", it was planned in advance, probably MONTHS in advance, and the timing is everything.

After all, according to all our vaunted "experts", right now the Ukrainian Armed Forces were meant to have occupied Melitopol with a corresponding breakdown in the Russian military. Against the backdrop of this, an attempt to seize power would have seemed most opportune.

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-25 06:17:53

The only problem is, when you lay such plans, if things don't go the way you had envisioned, you cannot necessarily back out of the cul-de-sac! The evidence exists and may be impossible to destroy. You may be forced to go, no matter the circumstances.

And this is precisely what I think happened. This brings me to the next point which would rule out any kind of spooky meaning behind these events: Prigozhin's own statements just prior to the launch of his putsch.

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-25 06:18:34

These were words that could have been lifted from an RDK internal memo. They were as if designed to lay the groundwork for an amicable "understanding" (read: surrender) to NATO. Let's recall what Prigozhin said about his country.

He stated that Russia's stated cause for entering the war was a lie, and in true Stenka Razin style, that the 'Tsar had been deceived!'. He even went so far as to spit on the people of Donetsk claiming that Ukraine never harmed them whatsoever.

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-25 06:19:35

He then even threw his own organization under the bus, claiming it was sent to Africa to plunder it for oligarchs, and that this was what Russia was intending for Ukraine. Are these the words of a man who you think would have continued the war?

And what use were these words if the entire thing was a large piece of theater? Why would the Kremlin have Prigozhin say such atrociously damaging things when they really added nothing to his cause, given the background of the simmering and well-known feud with the MoD?

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-25 06:21:42

These words were not written by the people who pushed Prigozhin. They were written for the people he hoped to climb into bed with after the coup, the various traitors abroad, people like Khodorkovsky, who received news of the coup with utter glee.

Whether Prigozhin was in contact already with handlers in the west before this broke out, its difficult to say. It seems likely. But nothing quite went to plan, because Ukraine failed to create a military crisis for Russia, much to everyone's surprise.

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-25 06:22:42

Notice also, Prigozhin almost had ready-baked statements for this military disaster he expected, and when it didn't happen, he published them anyway! He claimed, contrary to all war correspondents (even MoD-hostile ones) that UAF was achieving great success in the south.

So, when the coup unfolded, what did we find? Nobody supported Prigozhin except the enemy, except known traitors. Within hours, he was denounced by every governor in the country, the president, every major political party, and every prominent Telegram channel.

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-25 06:23:51

Like January 6th, it became apparent quickly that a lot of noise does not a seizure of power make. You have to either have the entire military apparatus on your side, or have significant backing from some political faction. He could find none.

So the attempt as clearly becoming unglued before Lukashenko stepped in to mediate. The outcome, according to the Kremlin, is quite clear. Wagner PMC will be dissolved. Prigozhin will be exiled to Belarus. No change of MoD personnel was apparently discussed.

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-25 06:24:47

His life was spared to prevent more bloodshed in the name of this narcissistic bandit, to prevent a fratricidal conflict that, while even most western analysts said was unlikely to go his way, could cost Russia its positions in Ukraine.

And speaking of Ukraine, we find that although their loud suited jackals jumped on this unfortunate incident, their army was slow to respond. Like the retreat from Kherson, it appears the moment to inflict maximum damage to Russia slipped through their fingers.

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-25 06:26:27

Russia has had 'loose' command structures cause it problems before. In 1682, the Streltsy, who formed the regulars of the Russian army, whilst helping the regent Sofia obtain power, illegally occupied the capital and turned it into their own personal barracks.

Their leader, Ivan Kovansky, was eventually beheaded along with his son, and Peter the Great destroyed the Streltsy after their final attempt to seize power, and the entire army was reorganized. Prigozhin is the Kovansky of our time. What he has done is unforgivable.

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-25 06:27:56

His laughable fraud about his men's camp being targeted by the Russian military (now recognized as staged by almost everyone), his clearly exaggerated outbursts during the siege of Bakhmut, his disgraceful use of his men's bodies as props, it has led to this final disgrace.

But it was all allowed to happen. And this is the critical point. The situation is defused, the war seems to be continuing, and the complete absence of support from society for the plotters does not bode well for any future attempts by someone else, but the damage is done.

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-25 06:29:29

The experiment of Wagner PMC, cooked up in backrooms to skirt around the stifling limitations of the Russian Federation's constitution, has exploded in the scientists' face. Putin oversaw the creation of a new Streltsy on Russian soil, and he crowned a new Kovansky over it.

For all the voluminous failures that can be put at the door of Gerasimov, Shoigu, and a host of as-yet-nameless Russian intelligence officials, this failure is on the president. For now, the requirement of stability in the face of NATO's efforts to destroy the country protect him

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-25 06:31:05

But more than ever, it has become apparent that Russia requires a new constitution, and as soon as this war is concluded (if it is concluded on favorable terms to Russia) a new president. What fate holds in store for Prigozhin, a disgrace to his country, we shall see.

For now, we return to the war. So far, it seems all men on the front continued to do their duty in this most difficult hour, when a madman held a dagger to their backs. Russia has lost a very capable force, but all other things mostly hold constant.

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-25 06:32:04

Concern about Russia's silent allies is certainly warranted, but we should remember the (much more serious imo) attempt by Turkey's actual army to overthrow Erdogan did not seriously damage the country's external relations long-term with its established allies.

Besides, I think everyone in the world does, after living with Russia for several hundred years, expect it to get a little crazy once in a while. Strange and tragic events are part of the national makeup.

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-6-25 06:32:33

(Addendum): I did not make any Telegram posts while this event was ongoing because I could see live the insane amount of misinformation being spread online, some of it quite obviously deliberate, some of it a result of idiocy, and some of it a result of clout-chasing.

https://twitter.com/baronitaigas/status/1672710273566756864

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