ulankl 发表于 2024-7-3 02:39
现在乌克兰的局势类似1948年夏天的中国大陆。。。俄军发动大规模战略大决战的时机正在成熟 ...
The Ukraine war will end in a surrender, not in a negotiated deal. That is my sense of where the war is headed and why the parties cannot negotiate a settlement.
The most important is that the main Anglo-Saxon players in NATO, namely the US and the UK, strongly oppose any negotiations with Russia. The US has done everything it can, including through sanctions and diplomatic measures, to prevent any dialogue with Russia on any subject (other than prisoner exchanges).
The second reason is Ukrainian legislation, sponsored by Zelensky, prohibiting negotiations with Russia. The Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine’s parliament) could rescind that legislation in a nanosecond if Zelensky asked them to do so but he likely won’t.
The third reason relates to pressure on Zelensky from hard-right nationalists, including especially the neo-Nazi Azov brigade. Direct evidence for this is the firing of Lieutenant General Yuri Sodol, the top commander of Kiev’s forces in the Kharkov area.
Ukraine’s situation has worsened along the entire line of contact. Ukrainian battle losses are very high, with as many as 2,000 killed and wounded on some days.
The Russians say that Zelensky is not a viable negotiating partner because his term of office expired in May. There is some confusion about the legal situation in Ukraine but experts in and outside Ukraine think that the leadership of the country should pass to the Speaker of the Rada since Zelensky completed his term.
Meanwhile, given the battlefield situation, the Russians no doubt figure that the time will soon come when the Ukrainian army either collapses or surrenders, or both.
In either case, the Ukrainian government will need to be replaced in some manner, perhaps with an interim military leadership selected by Russia. That would allow the Russians to formulate a capitulation agreement with a replacement government.
A surrender by Ukraine’s army and an agreement with a Russia-appointed government would make NATO’s continued involvement in Ukraine impossible.
That could open the door, finally, to a security dialogue between NATO and Russia once NATO digests what happened and why. Unfortunately, loading NATO with has-been political leaders like Marc Rutte does not bode well for the future of the alliance.
The key message for NATO if the Russians win in Ukraine, as seems more and more likely, is that the security alliance must stop its expansion and look for a more stable arrangement with Russia in Europe.
ulankl 发表于 2024-7-3 02:39
现在乌克兰的局势类似1948年夏天的中国大陆。。。俄军发动大规模战略大决战的时机正在成熟 ...
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