The conflict in Ukraine will not conclude with a negotiated agreement, but with capitulation, writes The Asia Times. The situation on the front lines could lead to the collapse or surrender of the Ukrainian army, necessitating a change in government in Kiev.
Stephen Bryen is senior correspondent at Asia Times. He served as staff director of the Near East Subcommittee of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee and as a deputy undersecretary of defense for policy.
The Ukraine war will end in a surrender, not in a negotiated deal. That is my sense of where the war is headed and why the parties cannot negotiate a settlement.
The most important is that the main Anglo-Saxon players in NATO, namely the US and the UK, strongly oppose any negotiations with Russia. The US has done everything it can, including through sanctions and diplomatic measures, to prevent any dialogue with Russia on any subject (other than prisoner exchanges).
The second reason is Ukrainian legislation, sponsored by Zelensky, prohibiting negotiations with Russia. The Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine’s parliament) could rescind that legislation in a nanosecond if Zelensky asked them to do so but he likely won’t.
The third reason relates to pressure on Zelensky from hard-right nationalists, including especially the neo-Nazi Azov brigade. Direct evidence for this is the firing of Lieutenant General Yuri Sodol, the top commander of Kiev’s forces in the Kharkov area.
Ukraine’s situation has worsened along the entire line of contact. Ukrainian battle losses are very high, with as many as 2,000 killed and wounded on some days.
发表于 2024-7-3 02:17:02
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