美国军事专家长文 —— 普京没有失败

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英国《每日邮报》3月2日发表军事专家比尔·罗奇奥长文 —— “普京并不疯狂，俄罗斯的入侵也没有失败”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10569141/Putin-NOT-crazy-Russian-invasion-NOT-failing-writes-military-analyst-BILL-ROGGIO.html

对了解当前乌克兰战场形势和普京的战略意图很有帮助

篇幅很长。下面将该文的英文原文复制粘贴，请有兴趣的网友协助翻译要点

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隐秘战线 发表于 2022-3-3 13:15
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多谢

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It has vast resources to draw on. While Ukraine has the support of much of the international community, which is providing weapons, Ukraine is fighting alone.

Believing Russia's assault is going poorly may make us feel better but is at odds with the facts.

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Putin may have miscalculated Ukrainian resistance and the intensity of the West's opposition, but it doesn't mean he is crazy, or didn't consider the possibilities and chose to invade regardless.

It remains to be seen if Putin's plan will succeed or fail, but what is clear is that there was a plan to invade Ukraine in force, and that plan has been executed since day one.

Ukrainian troops are putting up a valiant fight facing long odds and difficult conditions. Russia holds most if not all of the advantages.

It can, and has, attacked Ukraine from three different directions. The Russian military holds a decided advantage in manpower, as well as air, naval and armor superiority.

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In 2014, Putin occupied and annexed the strategic Ukrainian region of Crimea, which served as a launchpad for the current invasion.

Putin paid little price for either action.

The United States and Europe imposed limited sanctions but continued to engage with him on the Iranian nuclear deal and other top issues.

Today, Putin has calculated that taking Ukraine by force is in his and Russia's interest.

He no doubt anticipated that the West would impose diplomatic and economic sanctions, which U.S. and European leaders threatened beforehand.

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Nobody knows for sure, but Putin's actions appear to be that of a cold and calculating adversary.

Dismissing his decision to invade Ukraine as a form of madness is effectively an excuse to ignore Putin's likely motivations and future actions.

Strategically, Putin's advance on Ukraine began well over a decade ago, when he invaded and Balkanized Georgia by recognizing the Kremlin's puppet regimes in the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

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There are reports that Russian forces have escalated attacks on civilians, particularly in Kharkiv.

At the moment, the artillery and rocket attacks there have been limited, perhaps to send a message to the citizens as a warning of what may come.

Putin appears to want to take Ukraine intact, but will not hesitate to increase the level of brutality if needed.

The systematic nature of the Russian assault is at odds with speculation that Putin has lost control of his senses.

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If Russian columns from either southern front can link up with forces further north, they would cut off many Ukrainian troops from reinforcement—one of the two columns has already advanced roughly 160 miles.

Russian generals have often chosen to bypass towns and cities that are putting up stiff opposition and isolating them to deal with later.

隐秘战线

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