阿尔乔莫夫斯克战役的战后总结

井冈山卫士

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/the-battle-of-bakhmut-postmortem

这位substack上的博主“大谢尔盖”是目前对俄乌战争做出最为系统分析的军事评论家。其正在长篇连载的《机动作战史》可以算是军事历史和军事理论分析的经典之作。

“大谢尔盖”既有大卫·格兰茨（《巨人的碰撞》、《斯摩棱斯克三部曲》、《斯大林格勒三部曲》的作者）的严谨，又有罗伯特·奇蒂诺（《德国国防军三部曲》、《德国将道》、《从巴巴罗萨到沙漠风暴》的作者）的透彻，同时兼备道格拉斯·麦克格里高尔（《破阵枪林》、《火线转型》、《胜败咫尺》的作者）的诙谐。懂英语的网友可以阅读，不懂英语的网友可以当作英语和战争史的双重学习材料。

井冈山卫士

远航一号 发表于 2023-6-5 01:09
巴赫穆特失守，将动摇乌军今后依托坚固堡垒地带实施静态防御的决心

阿尔乔莫夫斯克失守不仅仅意味着一个重要交通枢纽和中心阵地丢失，而且意味着就算是集中精锐主力打静态防御这种看起来明显占便宜的仗，基辅也必然要失败。

远航一号

Bakhmut was after all a very good place to fight a static defense. If the AFU could not hold it, or even produce a favorable loss exchange, can a strategy of holding static fortified belts really be deemed viable?

巴赫穆特失守，将动摇乌军今后依托坚固堡垒地带实施静态防御的决心

远航一号

Meanwhile, Ukraine was left with virtually no indigenous offensive power - the only way it can conduct offensive operations is with a mechanized package built from scratch by NATO

乌克兰本土的战略预备队消耗殆尽

远航一号

Russia churned through its single most disposable military asset, leaving its regular ORBAT not only completely intact, but actually larger than it was last year.

俄军正规战斗序列保持完整，且不断扩大

远航一号

The enormous inventory of AFU units that were churned through Bakhmut included something on the order of 160,000 total personnel. Taking loss rates of between 25 and 30% (roughly on par with Wagner’s burn rate), it’s clear that Ukraine’s losses were extreme. I believe total irretrievable losses for Ukraine in Bakhmut were approximately 45,000, with some +/- 7,000 margin of error.

战役期间，乌军累计投入16万，至少阵亡45000人。

远航一号

The number that I have been working with is approximately 17,000 total Wagner KIA in the Bakhmut operation (with a min-max range of 14,000 and 20,000, respectively).

作者认为，战役期间，瓦格纳阵亡总数约为17000人，俄军正规军阵亡3000-5000人。

远航一号

this burn included a large number of Ukraine’s premier and veteran forces, including fully a dozen assault, airborne, and armored brigades.

在巴赫穆特，乌军损失了一大批精锐或富有战斗经验的部队，包括十几个突击旅、空降旅和装甲旅

远航一号

远航一号 发表于 2023-6-5 00:39
在九个月的战斗中，乌军累计投入37个旅、两个团、18个独立营以及格鲁吉亚兵团等若干雇佣兵部队，折合40个 ...

Ukraine had an extremely high burn rate which forced it to commit nearly a third of its total ORBAT

以上兵力占乌军全部战斗序列的三分之一

远航一号

This is an absolutely enormous commitment (37 brigades, 2 regiments, and 18 separate battalions (plus irregular formations like the Georgian Legion) which indicates obviously severe losses

在九个月的战斗中，乌军累计投入37个旅、两个团、18个独立营以及格鲁吉亚兵团等若干雇佣兵部队，折合40个旅以上