俄乌战争与美、俄全球战略

远航一号

推特上看到一组系列贴，对俄、美双方在当前战争中战略的演变提出了一些新颖看法，不仅围绕乌克兰，而且涉及东欧、中东和非洲。下面做一个简单的编译，供大家参考


What's the new US strategy in Ukraine?Originally was to create a threat that Russia couldn't ignore: a nazi regime designed to draw the Russians into Ukraine & then imposition of attrition cost over years.On February 2022, the US was excited to see its plan work. Did it?


https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278673635827712

美国在乌克兰战争中还有什么新战略？

一开始，美国的目的是造成这样一种威胁，大到俄罗斯无法置之不理：建立一个纳粹政权，以便将俄罗斯牵制在乌克兰，然后在长期消耗中削弱俄罗斯。

2022年2月，美国高兴地看到一切都在按照它的计划进行。

特浓的坎通人

隐秘战线 发表于 2023-7-30 11:10
不能这么说，我们所看到的只不过是西方群众中认识较为清晰的那一小部分
其余不明就里被政治正确裹挟，甚至 ...

的确如此，在外网说大实话的后果不比国内轻

隐秘战线

爱琳娜 发表于 2023-7-30 09:46
比起国内各大论坛的右派自由派小粉红，西方网友的认知还真是清晰的多。

不能这么说，我们所看到的只不过是西方群众中认识较为清晰的那一小部分
其余不明就里被政治正确裹挟，甚至干脆就是反动政治正确追随者的还是一抓一大把

爱琳娜

比起国内各大论坛的右派自由派小粉红，西方网友的认知还真是清晰的多。

远航一号

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685301610694725632

It's only going to get worse, if they lose Congo it's game over.

如果他们（西方）再失掉刚果，那就一切都完了

远航一号

The US has to wrap it all up, at some point or the other or the costs around the world will start to rise exponentially. It has to mirror this cost.

The US must fold in both Ukraine & Syria. It is aware of the requirement of the former, but not yet of the latter. Not yet.

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278736156176384

美国人必须要在乌克兰和叙利亚收摊了，否则，它在世界各地所面临的成本将以几何级数增长。

远航一号

Finally, while the US (and indeed NATO as a whole) is pinned down in Ukraine and Syria, Russia is going to town in Africa.

Country after country has been turned with the help of Wagner (i.e. the GRU), the European theft of African wealth is coming to an end.

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278733060726784

就在美国以及整个北约被困在乌克兰和叙利亚的时候，俄罗斯正在非洲大展宏图。一个又一个非洲国家在瓦格纳（实际上是俄罗斯情报机关的代理人）的帮助下改换门庭。欧洲人窃取非洲财富的时代就要结束了。

远航一号

Let's justify this statement:
- If Russia loses in Syria, Turkey has no risk against it and will eventually close the Bosphorus strait to Russia, the black sea becomes a dead pond.
- If the US loses in Syria,Turkey itself will start to drift away from NATO. i.e. Russian pond.
etc

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278730229563392

如果俄罗斯失去了叙利亚，土耳其就不必担心来自南面的压力，就可能向俄罗斯关闭博斯普鲁斯海峡，黑海就成了死湖。

反之，如果美国失去了叙利亚，土耳其就会逐渐脱离北约，而黑海则实际上成为俄罗斯的内湖。

远航一号

Seemingly forgotten by most commentators, the US strategy in Ukraine is largely tied to its war on Syria. Crimea was used to arm the latter, which itself helps Russia keeps the Black sea open from both ends.

Losing in one theatre means automatic defeat in the other. For both.

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278727276843008

美国在乌克兰的战略与其在叙利亚战争中的战略是密切相关的。俄罗斯依靠其在克里米亚的基地向叙利亚提供武器；克里米亚也是确保黑海两翼都对俄罗斯开放的关键。

乌克兰与叙利亚战场是唇齿相依的关系。对美、俄双方来说，在两个战场中任何一个的失败，都自动意味着另外一个战场的失败。

远航一号

Russia has already anticipated these moves, and started creating new threats for NATO with the deployment of Wagner in Belarus (now armed with nuclear weapons)

Russia, along with its friend (not ally) in Iran will also create new threats and imposition of costs to the west in Syria using symmetric and asymmetric means.

We're beginning to see this with joint SyAAF-VKS exercises and attacks on US drones. Heavy bombing of Al-Tanf is next.

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278724584017920

俄罗斯，看穿了美帝的阴谋，并以自己的方式给北约增加新的风险。首先，是把瓦格纳部队调到白俄罗斯，同时在白俄罗斯部署了核武器。

同时，俄罗斯与伊朗合作给在叙利亚的美军基地制造麻烦，击落美军的无人机，并可能轰炸美军在阿尔坦夫的军事基地。