俄罗斯的春季攻势计划

远航一号

Russian offensive warning - Spring 2024Putin's been reelected, Ukraine is desperately short on men, ammunition and equipment, and Western resolve is cracking.  It seems to me the time is ripe to end this war.What do the Russians have to attack with?  Let's take a look


https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1769525144219980259

普京连任总统后，俄罗斯可能开始自己的春季攻势

以力图结束战争

远航一号

对于乌克兰武装部队来说，整个前线已经出现了极其不愉快的局势。只有从后方大量调动兵力才能阻止俄罗斯部队的前进。现在的问题是，谁会更快消耗完—俄罗斯部队的炮弹还是乌克兰武装部队的人。

而且，乌克兰部队已经不得不不断节省弹药，弹药短缺开始产生累积效应，装备（主要是广为人知的西方装备）和人员的严重损失导致乌克兰军队的积极性大幅下降。

西方已经注意到，如果没有美国的支持，乌克兰将走向“崩溃”：如果它能够遏制俄罗斯，那么这将以巨大损失以及丧失重要领土为代价。 《华盛顿邮报》甚至写道，乌克兰的防空导弹即将耗尽，这就是为什么俄罗斯的打击变得越来越有效—他们表示，未来乌克兰武装部队将能够击退不超过20%的俄罗斯导弹空袭。莫斯科在军事生产方面也有优势—乌克兰每发射一枚炮弹，俄罗斯就生产五枚以上炮弹。

与此同时，乌克兰武装部队和前线并非一切顺利 - 俄罗斯部队继续进攻行动，但班科娃宣布的防御工事实际上并不存在。

https://twitter.com/KELMAND1/status/1769715793653379239

远航一号

The Russians overprepared to defeat the Ukrainian 2023 offensive.  I very strongly suspect they've overprepared for their own attack this year - and that they intend that blow to be so heavy as to foreclose intervention by NATO forces.  But more on that later.

俄军为了迎击乌军的2023年攻势做了“过度”充分的准备；俄军很可能也为2024年的攻势“过度”充分准备。

（未完待续）

远航一号

This leaves a million men to deal with Ukraine - considerably more, by the way, than even the most aggressive estimates of Russian force strength actually in theater, suggesting most of these troops are on standby in the deep rear.  This is also much higher than any serious estimate of Ukrainian force strength at this point, most of which range from 400-600,000.

俄军可用于乌克兰战场的兵力约100万，目前这些兵力的大部分都在后方；俄军总兵力大大超过乌军总兵力，后者估计为40万至60万

远航一号

We're looking at a 500,000-man prewar force, plus 300,000 reservists, plus 540,000 volunteers (18 months at 30,000/month), minus 100,000 casualties, for a total army of 1.24 million men.

作者经过计算，认为俄军地面部队总兵力已经发展到124万