俄乌战争与美、俄全球战略

远航一号

推特上看到一组系列贴，对俄、美双方在当前战争中战略的演变提出了一些新颖看法，不仅围绕乌克兰，而且涉及东欧、中东和非洲。下面做一个简单的编译，供大家参考


What's the new US strategy in Ukraine?Originally was to create a threat that Russia couldn't ignore: a nazi regime designed to draw the Russians into Ukraine & then imposition of attrition cost over years.On February 2022, the US was excited to see its plan work. Did it?


https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278673635827712

美国在乌克兰战争中还有什么新战略？

一开始，美国的目的是造成这样一种威胁，大到俄罗斯无法置之不理：建立一个纳粹政权，以便将俄罗斯牵制在乌克兰，然后在长期消耗中削弱俄罗斯。

2022年2月，美国高兴地看到一切都在按照它的计划进行。

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With columns surrounding Kiev, and Russia launching an all out missile attack and landings all over Ukraine, America was sure that the bait it set was swallowed by Putin.

And then, out of no where, Russia withdrew -- not as a result of military pressure but a political decision!

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278676559319040

随着俄军纵队逼近基辅、俄军在乌克兰全境实施导弹打击，美国断定：普京已经上钩了。

可是，然后，俄军开始撤退了 —— 不是由于军事压力，而是根据政治上的决策。

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To review the events, it's important to note the following proliferation risk sites in Ukraine:

Chernobyl [captured, radioactive material removed]
Hostomel air base [captured by Russia in lightning attack]
ZNPP [captured]
SUNPP [failed salient, withdrawn]
xNPP [no attempt made]

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278679583301632

在乌克兰境内存在核扩散危险的地区：

切尔诺贝利（被俄军夺取，放射性材料被转移）
霍斯托梅利空军基地（被俄军以闪电式空降夺取）
扎波罗热核电站 （被俄军夺取）

此外，俄军对另外一处核电站突击未遂；还有一处核电站，俄军未尝试夺取。

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Russia minimised the worst risks, Chernobyl for material [albeit 3 other NPPs], ZNPP right in Novorossiya and Hostomel which is said to have hosted soviet nuclear weapons that Ukraine failed to return to Russia.
By end of March 2022, Russia switched to an depletion strategy. Why?

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278685128273920

通过夺取和确保这些地方，俄罗斯将核扩散的危险减少到最低限度。扎波罗热核电站位于“新俄罗斯”地区之内；霍斯托梅利空军基地据说藏有乌克兰在“独立”时暗中保留下来的核武器。

去年三月底以后，俄军开始转入长期消耗战略。为什么呢？

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So Russia took its sweet time, and exercised reflexive control to attack two centres of gravity of its enemy:
* Ukrainian man power using artillery and political-psychological operations, forcing Ukraine to hold, contest & attack territory.
* NATO's collective military strength.

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278690228523009

接下来，俄罗斯从容不迫，集中打击敌方所依赖的两大重心：

首先是通过优势火力以及政治心理战消耗乌克兰的人力资源，迫使乌军反复争夺并坚守每一寸土地

同时又消耗整个北约的军事力量

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The former is understood by all now. The latter is becoming clearer: NATO is running out of ammunition, fuel and sovereign capital to continue this war.

Every month that passes results in a stronger Russia and a weaker NATO (and US).
But why do they go on? Why doesn't NATO fold?

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278692782882816

对乌克兰人力资源的消耗，现在已经是众所周知了。对北约的消耗也越来越清晰了：北约的炮弹快用完了，继续进行战争的政治意志也动摇了。

战争每延长一个月，俄罗斯就越战越强，而北约、美帝则越战越弱。

但是，北约为什么还不放弃呢？

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Because Russia flipped the table: Ukraine turned into a threat that NATO couldn't ignore.

A collapsed state bordering NATO will splinter into warlords, armed with dangerous weapons and a proliferation risk.
A defeat in Ukraine would result in a paradigm shift against the west.

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278697094545408

因为俄罗斯把桌子翻了个底朝天（意思是：以其人之道还治其人之身），乌克兰变成了北约不能置之不理的严重威胁：

在北约旁边，出现了一个崩溃的国家，军阀割据，分别拥有危险的武器，核武器可能扩散；如果西方在乌克兰失败了，天下大势将对西方极为不利。

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But most dangerously, a desperate Ukraine would commit an act so risky, like destroying ZNPP, that the entire planet's future would be in peril.

Thus, Russia fixed NATO in Ukraine and kept the power change differential flowing in its favour.

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278699724439553

最危险的是，处于穷途末路的乌克兰也许会失去理智，破坏扎波罗热核电站，置整个人类的安全于不顾

北约和乌克兰都被困住了；力量对比不断地向有利于俄罗斯的方向变化

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The US/UK tried stinging terrorist attacks against Russian infrastructure around the world and inside Russia (Nordstream, Kakhovka dam,Kerch bridge x2) but failed to change this dynamic. And faced sometimes apocalyptic retaliation.
i.e. Russia firmly controls the pace of the war.

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278703096582144

美、英情报部门及其乌克兰走狗妄图用恐怖主义破坏来改变战争进程，他们破坏了北溪二号、卡霍夫卡大坝，两次破坏刻赤大桥。但是，俄罗斯坚定地控制着战争的节奏。