斯考特·里特认为，普里戈任是按照外国情报机关的意志行动

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So, we arrive at the second question.
What are we to make of Yevgeny Victorovich and his actions? To Russia, there is only one word that can adequately describe this man now, and that word is traitor. On this point, an important caveat must be made:

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The fighters of PMC Wagner, at least the lower ranks, are unlikely to be culpable to a significant extent. Coups more often than not involve quite a bit of deception even against the people holding the guns. But several senior commanders, most ex-military, are culpable.

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What occurred over the last 24 hours was, when we take into account the entire range of effects, the worst crime against the country since probably the 1990s. That it took place during a conflict of an existential nature makes it all the more egregious.

Prigozhin has achieved all of these negative effects for his country, not to mention destroying the organization he claimed to represent. What motivated him? On this, I think the evidence available leaves very little room for speculation.

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As many have pointed out, this attempted coup (and that is exactly what it was) did not occur "spontaneously", "in a fit of rage or madness", it was planned in advance, probably MONTHS in advance, and the timing is everything.

After all, according to all our vaunted "experts", right now the Ukrainian Armed Forces were meant to have occupied Melitopol with a corresponding breakdown in the Russian military. Against the backdrop of this, an attempt to seize power would have seemed most opportune.

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The only problem is, when you lay such plans, if things don't go the way you had envisioned, you cannot necessarily back out of the cul-de-sac! The evidence exists and may be impossible to destroy. You may be forced to go, no matter the circumstances.

And this is precisely what I think happened. This brings me to the next point which would rule out any kind of spooky meaning behind these events: Prigozhin's own statements just prior to the launch of his putsch.

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These were words that could have been lifted from an RDK internal memo. They were as if designed to lay the groundwork for an amicable "understanding" (read: surrender) to NATO. Let's recall what Prigozhin said about his country.

He stated that Russia's stated cause for entering the war was a lie, and in true Stenka Razin style, that the 'Tsar had been deceived!'. He even went so far as to spit on the people of Donetsk claiming that Ukraine never harmed them whatsoever.

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He then even threw his own organization under the bus, claiming it was sent to Africa to plunder it for oligarchs, and that this was what Russia was intending for Ukraine. Are these the words of a man who you think would have continued the war?

And what use were these words if the entire thing was a large piece of theater? Why would the Kremlin have Prigozhin say such atrociously damaging things when they really added nothing to his cause, given the background of the simmering and well-known feud with the MoD?

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These words were not written by the people who pushed Prigozhin. They were written for the people he hoped to climb into bed with after the coup, the various traitors abroad, people like Khodorkovsky, who received news of the coup with utter glee.

Whether Prigozhin was in contact already with handlers in the west before this broke out, its difficult to say. It seems likely. But nothing quite went to plan, because Ukraine failed to create a military crisis for Russia, much to everyone's surprise.

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Notice also, Prigozhin almost had ready-baked statements for this military disaster he expected, and when it didn't happen, he published them anyway! He claimed, contrary to all war correspondents (even MoD-hostile ones) that UAF was achieving great success in the south.

So, when the coup unfolded, what did we find? Nobody supported Prigozhin except the enemy, except known traitors. Within hours, he was denounced by every governor in the country, the president, every major political party, and every prominent Telegram channel.

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Like January 6th, it became apparent quickly that a lot of noise does not a seizure of power make. You have to either have the entire military apparatus on your side, or have significant backing from some political faction. He could find none.

So the attempt as clearly becoming unglued before Lukashenko stepped in to mediate. The outcome, according to the Kremlin, is quite clear. Wagner PMC will be dissolved. Prigozhin will be exiled to Belarus. No change of MoD personnel was apparently discussed.