The US is stuck with its own creation, the nazi regime in Kiev and seemingly no end to the loss of material wealth, military equipment and even specialist man power
A new strategy was needed.
Primarily, the US had to do what Russia refused to: Liquidate the Ukrainian state! How?
1. Using political and economic pressure to force Ukraine to deplete its forces sooner rather than later, leaving no path to victory and no means by which the existing regime could even secure itself.
This is exemplified by the command to hold Bakhmut and attack Zaporozhye.
2. Leaving no means by which the war could be "frozen" in Russia's advantage (leaving a permanent drain on NATO without risk to Russia). This forces Russia to eventually come & occupy Ukraine
This is exemplified by the statement that Ukraine would join NATO at the end of the war.
Secondarily, the US wanted to amplify even more risks to Russia around the world.
Of the original RAND strategy paper, only two viable "cost-imposing" options remain, escalation in Syria and an attack on Transnistria.
Yet, there are more theatres where costs/risks can be imposed.
For example, the Suwałki Gap and a blockade on Kalinigrad would be viable with Sweden's entry into NATO.
Or Polish entry into Ukraine, supposedly without NATO support. This threat acts in synergy with the 2nd point of the first, forcing Russia to mobilise 500k men and take it all
Russia has already anticipated these moves, and started creating new threats for NATO with the deployment of Wagner in Belarus (now armed with nuclear weapons)
Russia, along with its friend (not ally) in Iran will also create new threats and imposition of costs to the west in Syria using symmetric and asymmetric means.
We're beginning to see this with joint SyAAF-VKS exercises and attacks on US drones. Heavy bombing of Al-Tanf is next.
Seemingly forgotten by most commentators, the US strategy in Ukraine is largely tied to its war on Syria. Crimea was used to arm the latter, which itself helps Russia keeps the Black sea open from both ends.
Losing in one theatre means automatic defeat in the other. For both.
Let's justify this statement:
- If Russia loses in Syria, Turkey has no risk against it and will eventually close the Bosphorus strait to Russia, the black sea becomes a dead pond.
- If the US loses in Syria,Turkey itself will start to drift away from NATO. i.e. Russian pond.
etc
楼主: 远航一号
发表于 2023-7-30 07:52:21
