真主党领导人表示，准备长期斗争、力求避免战争升级

远航一号

https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1720458288200831445

SUMMARY ON THE HEZBOLLAH SPEECH: NO ESCALATION, MORE OF THE SAME

- The speech started positively, distancing themselves and Iran from the Oct 7 Attack, and therefore the war:

"Operation “Al-Aqsa Flood” was decided 100% Palestinian, its implementation was 100% Palestinian, and its owners hid it from everyone."

- Nasrallah then started making threats, including to U.S forces. This wasn't good and got me worried:

"We have made 'preparations' for the American ships, and we ask America to remember their defeats in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon."

- He also highlighted the risk of a regional war, but showed that he did not want that to happen:

"Whoever wants to prevent a regional war must hasten to stop this aggression"

- Lastly, and most importantly, he ended the speech stating clearly that they will NOT be escalating, and instead will be patient:

"On the horizon, we are all fighting a battle of steadfastness. Our battle has not reached the stage of victory by knockout, and we still need time, but we are winning."

CONCLUSION:

Hezbollah is unlikely to escalate, and will continue the same tit for tat attacks against Israel.

They want de-escalation and do not want to be further involved, at least not yet.

远航一号

真主党演讲摘要：https://twitter.com/wenjiebc/status/1720462566151856598

“阿克萨洪水”行动决定100%是巴勒斯坦人，其实施100%是巴勒斯坦人。

-纳斯鲁拉随后开始威胁，包括对美军：我们已经为美国船只做了'准备'，我们要求美国记住他们在阿富汗、伊拉克、叙利亚和黎巴嫩的失败。

-他还强调了地区战争的风险，但表示他不希望这种情况发生：

任何想阻止地区战争的人必须赶紧停止这种侵略

-最后，最重要的是，他在演讲结束时明确表示，他们不会升级，而是会耐心等待：

“在地平线上，我们都在打一场坚定的战斗。我们的战斗还没有达到淘汰赛的胜利阶段，我们仍然需要时间，但我们正在获胜。”

结论：

真主党不太可能升级，并将继续对以色列进行同样的针锋相对的袭击。