6月23日基辅损失武装分子380人

井冈山卫士

俄罗斯卫星通讯社莫斯科6月23日电 俄罗斯国防部表示，在对乌特别军事行动中单日消灭380名乌军士兵。

俄罗斯国防部表示，乌军在南顿涅茨克、扎波罗热和顿涅茨克方向的反攻最为猛烈。

俄罗斯国防部强调：“单日，敌军在南顿涅茨克和扎波罗热方向共损失了130多名乌克兰士兵，俄军共摧毁坦克5辆、步兵战车3辆、装甲战车3辆、汽车4辆、D-20榴弹炮2门以及波兰制造的“蟹式”自行火炮1门。”

俄罗斯国防部表示：“在顿涅茨克方向，俄军成功挫败了敌军4次反攻。俄军在战斗中消灭了90余名乌军士兵，摧毁了装甲战车2辆、皮卡3辆、D20和‘Msta-B’榴弹炮各1门。此外，摧毁1个军火库。”

俄国防部战报表示：“单日，在红利曼方向消灭多达90名乌军士兵，摧毁步兵战车2辆、装甲战车2辆、皮卡2辆、‘石竹’自行火炮2门，以及D-20和D-30榴弹炮各一门。”

俄国防部称：“在库皮扬斯克方向，俄军单日消灭了多达30名乌克兰士兵，摧毁了装甲战车2辆、汽车3辆以及波制‘蟹式’自行火炮1门。”

俄国防部消息称：“在赫尔松方向，单日消灭多达40名乌军人，摧毁汽车4辆以及美制M777火炮1门。”

井冈山卫士

纳粹反攻明显减缓，在处扎波罗热-南顿涅茨克方向以外，已经见不到坦克。

井冈山卫士

据CNN援引西方国家代表和五角大楼高级官员的话报道，乌军反击并没有像基辅政权的盟友所期望的那样成功。



报道称：“反攻在任何一条战线上都没有达到预期。”






消息人士指出，乌军在雷区面前相当脆弱，俄军则在防御方面表现出很高的效率。

文章指出，乌军现在损失惨重，好像还受到天气条件的阻碍，尽管如此，美国及其盟友仍希望在7月前取得重大成功。

昨天，泽连斯基在接受英国媒体采访时承认，反攻的进展 "比我们希望的要慢"。

井冈山卫士

欧洲媒体在解释乌克兰反攻出现疲软结果时指出，俄罗斯武装部队构建了有效的防线，且成功利用了航空器和电子对抗设备。此外，有一些人指出，是因为乌克兰的失误和西方支持者的准备不足。请在俄罗斯卫星通讯社的分析文章中了解过去几天来欧洲各国关于此事的报道。

不会产生多米诺骨牌效应

俄罗斯军队的防线构建得当，这是各国媒体和专家的一致评价。

瑞士《沃森杂志》（Watson）写道：“从一开始就很明显，乌克兰的反攻将与去年秋天的闪电战不同。这一次，俄罗斯有几个月的时间来准备和构建纵深梯次配置的防御工事，”

匈牙利国立公共服务大学军事国家安全系主任伊斯特万·雷什佩格（Istvan Reshperger ）上校在匈牙利信息广播电台（Inforadio）的节目中也发表了同样的观点。专家指出，即使是在乌克兰方面成功进攻的情况下，他也不认为会出现“多米诺骨牌效应”，并预计损失将达到25%至50%。

井冈山卫士

据《纽约时报》撰文报道，乌克兰反攻的开始并没有带来任何快速的突破，基辅的进展很缓慢。

根据《纽约时报》的消息，乌克兰反攻的成功现在将取决于在西方训练的乌克兰部队如何表现。美国政府希望他们能够取得优势。

消息中说：“但是乌克兰的进展很缓慢，即使是美国战争方式的拥趸也承认，反攻开始并没有带来任何快速的突破。"

该报指出，虽然乌克兰没有谈论军事损失，但是战斗条件对乌克兰部队构成了严重的挑战。美国报纸撰文说，俄罗斯军队构建的雷区、反坦克陷阱和其它防御网、以及前线大部分地区几乎光秃秃的平坦地形，使得进攻部队很容易受到俄罗斯大炮的打击。

许多西方媒体早些时候开始指出，乌克兰军队在反攻中遭遇了许多麻烦。

前一天，俄罗斯安全会议秘书尼古拉·帕特鲁舍夫向总统弗拉基米尔·普京汇报说，基辅从6月4日至21日的损失已经超过了13000人，246辆坦克和近600辆装甲车被摧毁。普京指出，乌克兰的进攻储备尚未耗尽，这一点必须在特别军事行动的过程中加以考虑。

井冈山卫士

井冈山卫士 发表于 2023-6-23 23:24
据《纽约时报》撰文报道，乌克兰反攻的开始并没有带来任何快速的突破，基辅的进展很缓慢。

根据《纽约时报 ...

这可是帝国主义“左”派宣传喉舌《纽约时报》的消息。

全世界只有中文纳粹界还在欢呼“大捷”。

马儿在驰骋

豹2完全就是给俄军刷战绩的，布拉德利也不遑多让。

这么看来，还是英国这个专业搅屎棍最鸡贼，带头给乌克兰挑战者2，挑唆其他北约成员国送装备，结果美德两国“禁不住诱惑”送了一堆坦克到扎波罗热前线，被俄军刷战绩惨不忍睹，反观英国给的挑2就还是那几辆，还“坐镇后方”没多大损失，另外带头给贫铀弹的也是他们（虽然被俄军一锅端了）。

用b站上一些军事网友的话说，大嘤在不做人方面从来不让人失望，也难怪佩斯科夫说如果打核战先炸伦敦。

守门老鸨

亲乌信源还说俄罗斯这一天死了680呢，各位爱信不信吧，反正我是对俄罗斯绝望了
https://news.yahoo.com/russia-lo ... s-44-051602199.html

井冈山卫士

守门老鸨 发表于 2023-6-24 01:16
亲乌信源还说俄罗斯这一天死了680呢，各位爱信不信吧，反正我是对俄罗斯绝望了
https://news.yahoo.com/rus ...

你给的这个来源是基辅国防部。

后面的数字是俄罗斯损失兵力已经达到了24万。如果这是真的，俄罗斯早就该进行多波次动员了。同样的基辅国防部发布自己的总损失只有1万出头。但这很难理解基辅的总动员令。

同时，还是这个基辅国防部在战争初期紧急下调俄军伤亡数字来让自己显得不是那么离谱。俄军对自己和乌军的伤亡数字从未下调过。

基辅调集了几乎全部的精锐，打了三个星期，但是还没有摸到俄军防线门口。而且基辅在空军，防空，炮火，指挥，人员素质，士气，电子战和后勤全面劣势的情况下，无论如何都不可能取得杀伤超过俄军的战绩。

井冈山卫士

守门老鸨 发表于 2023-6-24 01:16
亲乌信源还说俄罗斯这一天死了680呢，各位爱信不信吧，反正我是对俄罗斯绝望了
https://news.yahoo.com/rus ...

ANALYSIS ATTRITION RATE JUNE 23
How can I say how large losses are? That Ukrainian losses are higher than Russian losses at present? It's a valid question, since I don't have the real numbers from both sides. All analysis of such numbers, even from Pentagon, Kiev or Kremlin are guesswork based on certain assumptions.

It's a bit like when  US hunted german submarines during WWII in the Atlantic. They didn't know where the submarines was, but based on assumptions they calculated where the probability for german submarines was highest and concentrated their resources to those areas, with great success.

Both sides claim that their opponent has much higher casualties than they have themselves. Are the Ukrainians or the Russians right and their opponent totally wrong? Of course not, they are both waging a propaganda war and are grossly overestimating enemy losses and avoid giving own numbers. Supporters of both sides then often guess that their side has about 1/10 of the enemies losses. You can see both sides claims on the photos below.

My basic assumption is that both sides are partly right when it comes to enemy losses, even though grossly overestimated. If you can back up your claims with photo/video confirmation the claims of course are made stronger.

Another way to estimate losses are by looking on what kind of warfare that's being conducted. Attackers often loose more men than defenders. But that could change if attackers have overwhelming artillery support or being strengthened even more if defenders have massive artillery support. In Bakhmut ukrainian soldiers on the ground said that 70-80 percent of their losses came from artillery.

Let's calculate casualities and be kind to the defenders. The defender loose 7 (70 %) to artillery and 3 (30%) in ground battles that's 10. If your own artillery is weak you kill 2-3 attackers with it and 2-3 times as many attackers on the ground as you loose, that's 6-9 attackers. All in all defence loose 10 and attackers 8-12. They're even, if we're kind to defence and the attackers has artillery superiority.

Move this to today's fighting when defenders have clear artillery and air superiority. Then the calculations are like this. Attackers loose 8 (80%) to artillery/air assaults and 2 in ground combat. Defenders loose 2-4 to attackers artillery and 1 in ground combat. All in all that's 3-5 lost defenders for 10 lost attackers.

When it comes to military equipment both sides have published lot's of videos of destroyed enemy equipment. Russian videos has been closer to the claimed Russian kills than the Ukrainian side. This could mean two things. That RuAF suddenly has become better to record kills or that Ukrainian figures are overestimated.

The last three weeks Internet has been filled with Russian videos of large ukrainian losses in vehicles. This is a strong indication of high Ukrainian losses. Ukraine claims that Russian losses are five times as large as Ukrainian losses, but if we go by video material the opposite would seem more likely. If we are kind we could assume that Ukrainian losses are at least twice those on the Russian side, and three times as large losses are not unlikely.

Putin said at his meeting with the Russian military bloggers a week ago, that Ukraine had lost 7500 KIA/WIA and around 160 tanks compared to Russian losses of 750 KIA/WIA and 54 tanks on the Southern front.  Manpower loss figures seems very unlikely, but tank numbers are more realistic.

My approximation of Ukrainian losses for the June offensive up until now, on all fronts, are around 750 KIA/WIA, 10-12 tanks and 25-30 IFVs/APCs a day. Russian losses are probably less than half the Ukrainian losses.
This would give Ukrainian losses of around 15 000 KIA/WIA, 200-240 tanks and 500-600 IFVs/APCs during the Counteroffensive against at most Russian losses of 7500 KIA/WIA, 100 tanks and 250-300 IFVs/APCs.

这是一个非常给乌军面子的分析。