大前研一氏的假设，如果中国版广场协议实现的话，中国的

马列托主义者

最近IMF又调高了中国的经济增长率，并且预期中长期较高的增长率（https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20170614-00000111-jij-int），这个看法是符合中共的希望的，这样下去，中国走出中低收入陷阱是完全可能的。
最近中国崩溃论越来越少

大前研一氏的假设，如果中国版广场协议实现的话，中国的制造业崩溃，显然这也是在假设的情况下发生，从文中可见至少整个资本主义世界包括美帝是不希望看见中国崩溃的。
该文提到习普会的三个要求，一中国开发美国牛肉市场和美国电子结算公司在中国的经营，二要求中国汇率浮动制，三要求中国发挥影响人制止朝鲜核武器开发。

大前研一氏认为即使日本的体质，在广场协议后，日元对美元升值4.5倍，日本的制造业依靠技术进步挺了过来，但是还是导致了房地产泡沫化及其崩溃后的失去的20年。
假设中国的人民币升值4.5倍，就是1美元=2人民币，中国的制造业要崩溃，中国没有技术能力发展制造业，不得不放弃制造业，然后房地产泡沫大发展，甚至世界性的房地产泡沫大发展，中国会到世界各地购买房地产，然后破裂后爆发世界性的恐慌。美国找不到第二个世界工厂，美国物价成本推动型通胀。世界性经济危机爆发。

不过关键是这个所谓的广场协议到底会不会来，依据在哪里？或者放弃汇率管制后，难道不是人民币大贬值（所谓的市场决定汇率）而是大升值？

日本为什么在广场协议后，日元会大升值？从下面的词条来看，日元大升值似乎不是市场行为而是政府行为，那么为什么要求中国汇率形成机制市场化，反而会导致人民币升值？西方经济学或市场教是不是又在忽悠我们。
中国版プラザ合意実現したら投機に走り中国製造業崩壊の危機

https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/ar ... -pseven-bus_all&p=1


附
广场协议(Plaza Accord)是20世纪80年代初期，美国财政赤字剧增，对外贸易逆差大幅增长。美国希望通过美元贬值来增加产品的出口竞争力，以改善美国国际收支不平衡状况。
广场协议的签订得到日本大藏省（2000年前的日本主管经融财政的部门）的强力推动。[1]  当时日本经济发展过热，日元升值可以帮助日本拓展海外市场，成立独资或合资企业。广场协议签订后，日元大幅升值，国内泡沫急剧扩大，最终由于房地产泡沫的破灭造成了日本经济的长期停滞，此协议签订后近20年，日本经济发展几乎陷入停顿，用崩溃来形容也不过分。

1985年9月22日，美国、日本、联邦德国、法国以及英国的财政部长和中央银行行长（简称G5）在纽约广场饭店举行会议，达成五国政府联合干预外汇市场，诱导美元对主要货币的汇率有秩序地贬值，以解决美国巨额贸易赤字问题的协议。因协议在广场饭店签署，故该协议又被称为“广场协议”。

“广场协议”签订后，上述五国开始联合干预外汇市场，在国际外汇市场大量抛售美元，继而形成市场投资者的抛售狂潮，导致美元持续大幅度贬值。1985年9月，美元兑日元在1美元兑250日元上下波动，协议签订后不到3个月的时间里，美元迅速下跌到1美元兑200日元左右，跌幅20%。[4]  　在这之后，以美国财政部长贝克为代表的美国当局以及以弗日德·伯格斯藤（当时的美国国际经济研究所所长）为代表的金融专家们不断地对美元进行口头干预，最低曾跌到1美元兑120日元。在不到三年的时间里，美元对日元贬值了50%，也就是说，日元对美元升值了一倍。

马列托主义者

中美资本主义的一体性

China’s Ivanka Trump sweatshops – labour activists arrested
JUNE 12, 2017 10:54 PMVIEWS: 92
Is the Chinese regime’s relationship with the US ruling family a factor behind these arrests?

Vincent Kolo, chinaworker.info

Three Chinese activists have been detained and face criminal charges after an undercover investigation of working conditions at two factories belonging to the Huajian Group, a supplier of shoes for the Ivanka Trump fashion label. The arrests came just weeks after the brand owned by the US president’s daughter secured three new exclusive trademarks in China.

On 5 June the US State Department called for the release of the three men. No statement has been issued by Trump or her father however. The Chinese authorities immediately rejected the US call, stating on 6 June that foreign countries have no right to “interfere” in China’s judicial sovereignty and independence. This is a standard response from the Chinese dictatorship using nationalism to avoid deeper scrutiny of its increasingly repressive rule.

The past few years, especially since Xi Jinping came to power, have seen a deepening crackdown on labour activists, lawyers, feminists, NGOs and social media. A raft of new laws under the banner of “state security” is being used to criminalise peaceful protests and actions to expose human rights abuses, environmental crimes and violations of workers’ legal rights. Forced disappearances, televised ‘confessions’, taking family members or colleagues hostage, and torture, are all features of this crackdown.

See also: China feminists gagged over Trump criticism ➵
NGOs with “foreign ties” – as in this case – are particularly being singled out for attack with Xi’s regime convinced it could at some point face a “colour revolution”. This is the term it uses to describe the Arab Spring of 2011 and other mass revolts, alleging that foreign-funded groups are plotting its overthrow. In reality, foreign and domestic NGOs do not question China’s dictatorial system. Their activities are linked to achieving relatively modest, sectional improvements.


Shoe production at Dongguan factory of Huajian Group.
15-hour work day

The three men – Li Zhao, Su Heng and Hua Haifeng – were engaged by the US-based NGO China Labor Watch (CLW) to investigate reports of extreme working hours, low pay and exploitation of student labour by Huajian. A letter to Ivanka Trump from CLW said workers at the two factories regularly work more than 15 hours a day, with just two days off a month, and suffer verbal abuse from managers. Huajian Group produces around one-third of Ivanka Trump branded shoes – more than 100,000 pairs per year.

CLW has previously published exposés of Chinese production facilities used by Samsung, Apple and Disney, involving illegal practises such as the use of child labour. The NGO sounded the alarm after it lost contact with its three investigators in late May, describing their detention on criminal charges as “unprecedented”. Their plight looks increasingly grim as the Chinese authorities – utilising a completely rigged regime-controlled judicial system – announced a string of potentially serious charges.

Based on state media reports, the three activists face charges of using “illegal surveillance equipment” and “sending industrial secrets abroad”. A CLW spokesperson denied the charges, while at least one legal expert has questioned whether the charge of using “illegal surveillance equipment” even exists in China. Probably, the state’s case against the activists rests on their possession of smart phone/cameras – devices that 695 million Chinese own.

Foreign office spokeswoman Hua Chunying told US media the men were being held on “suspicion of interfering with the company’s normal operations and production activities” – wording that suggests any form of strike, go slow, or collective stoppage by workers would likewise constitute a criminal offence.

Li, Su and Hua are reportedly being held in Ganzhou in Jiangxi province, where one of the factories under investigation is located. Hua’s wife said he is being held in a cell with 20 other prisoners who have been ordered not to speak to him. He has to sleep next to the toilet bucket.

Shifting priorities

In previous years dozens of such undercover investigations have been conducted at Chinese factories, helping to expose appalling conditions. These were largely tolerated by the Chinese regime in the past, which saw such investigations as a way to shame factory owners into dealing with some of the worst forms of abuse and thereby defuse potentially destabilising worker unrest. The ‘Ivanka arrests’ point to a shift in regime priorities – with profits squeezed and the economy in trouble the authorities are more anxious to discourage workers’ demands.

Accordingly, we can speak of a new chapter in the state’s crackdown against labour rights advocates. Hundreds of worker activists have been arrested in the past year for organising strikes and other protests which are illegal in China. The high profile trials and televised ‘confessions’ of three labour activists in Guangdong province last year, resulting in suspended prison sentences, was a further attempt to stem the rising tide of strikes.

In stark contrast to the vociferous China-bashing of her father during his election campaign (now abruptly dropped to appease Wall Street), China is a key market and production base for Ivanka Trump’s company. Imports to the US of Ivanka branded products rose 166 percent in 2016, almost all of them made in China. The company’s gross profits rose to $840.9 million for the 2017 fiscal year.


Hua Haifeng is one of the three detained activists.
Dramatic thaw

In April, Ivanka’s company won monopoly rights to sell its branded jewellery, bags and spa services in China – a significant victory given Beijing’s opaque trademark rules. This inevitably raises questions about possible political influence especially as the deal on trademark rights coincided with Xi Jinping’s first meeting with Donald Trump and a sudden dramatic thaw in their initially frosty relations.

These connections were questioned by Nicholas Bequelin, the East Asia Director of Amnesty International: “The eagerness of members of the [Trump] family to do business in China while airbrushing very troubling human rights and labour rights records of the country is troubling.”

See also: China-US trade war called off for now ➵
Becoming an advisor to her father as president – an official government role – Ivanka Trump has formally stepped back from day-to-day running of her company to avoid conflict-of-interests charges, but she maintains overall control through a system of trusts.

Since the arrests in China the Ivanka Trump company has sought to distance itself from Huajian Group, saying Huajian last made its products three months ago. But a spokesperson for CLW revealed that its investigators had found Ivanka Trump merchandise inside the company’s factories in April and May of this year. They also found evidence of planned production, namely a production schedule indicating pending orders for Ivanka Trump shoes due in May.

chinaworker.info adds our voice to those demanding the release of the three investigators. Factory investigations by NGO activists have become the latest victim of Xi Jinping’s crackdown. The sensitivity of the Chinese regime’s current relationship with the US ruling family could be an additional factor behind these arrests. The corrupt ties between Western capitalist politicians and China’s authoritarian sweatshop capitalism need to be exposed. But the brutal exploitation and suppression of Chinese workers cannot be overcome by appealing to the ‘ethics’ of the company bosses – whose only interest is profit. Only genuine and independent workers’ organisations and mass struggle supported by international working class solidarity can change these conditions.