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认输止损，是美国唯一的选择 [复制链接]

远航一号

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电梯直达

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发表于 2023-5-27 03:54:28 |显示全部楼层 |倒序浏览

本帖最后由远航一号于 2023-5-27 08:18 编辑

乌战美国不会赢。美国只能选择：1）现在认输。2）过一阵认输。输更多3）升级。乌国或欧洲或英国挨核弹。战争结束4）最高升级。美俄拼核。同归于尽。

欧洲想要1), 快停火。俄中想要2），俄想摧毁乌。俄中想打垮美元统治，北约，重伤美国霸权。拜登和neocons和小泽想要3）。他们输不起。没人想要4），但世界可能失控到4）。

https://twitter.com/shell_zipi/status/1662178267929911297

本主题由远航一号于 2023-5-27 11:23:48 生成文章

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远航一号

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沙发

发表于 2023-5-27 08:17:08 |显示全部楼层

"Losing face" is the ONLY option.

https://twitter.com/imetatronink/status/1662216843929731073

As I have argued for years now, I am utterly convinced the US could not win and will not fight a war against Russia in eastern Europe.

They do not have the power nor the means to do so!

They simply could not concentrate and sustain forces sufficient to defeat the Russians (and their allies) in a conventional war. I am more certain of this now than I was when I wrote my seminal article on the topic back in early July 2022. (The United States Could Not Win and Will Not Fight a War Against Russia — linked at end of this post.)

They would need to assemble a force of no fewer than three million combat effectives and the equipment and armaments sufficient to sustain them for several years.

At this moment in time, the US could not field even 250k combat effectives if they emptied every American base on the planet! And even if they could, they could not sustain them in high-intensity conflict for more than a month or so!

As for US air power, even if they could magically maintain 100% mission-capable rates for all their aircraft, they would run out of missiles with which to arm them in a matter of weeks!

They would also be deprived within days of all their aerial tankers and airborne ISR assets.

And, of course, the attrition rate on US strike aircraft against Russian air defenses would be absolutely catastrophic.

Anyway, I could go on and on about this. There are many other insuperable limitations and obstacles the US would face in an attempt to fight a war against Russia in eastern Europe.

And the same sorts of insuperable limitations and obstacles would apply to war against either Iran or China.

The US has only one good option: relinquish empire and spend the next few decades rebuilding America.

—
Links:

The United States Could Not Win and Will Not Fight a War Against Russiahttps://imetatronink.substack.co ... uld-not-win-andhtml

The Arsenal of Democracy Isn'thttps://imetatronink.substack.com/p/the-arsenal-of-democracy-isnt

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远航一号

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板凳

发表于 2023-5-27 08:30:09 |显示全部楼层

远航一号发表于 2023-5-27 08:17
"Losing face" is the ONLY option.

https://twitter.com/imetatronink/status/1662216843929731073

上面这篇推文的一些主要观点：

1 在东欧地区，美国不可能赢得与俄罗斯的战争；美国也不敢直接与俄罗斯作战。

2 美国要进行与俄罗斯的战争，必须出动300万大军并为他们装备足够使用数年的武器弹药。

3 即使美国放弃在世界上的所有军事基地，也只能勉强凑齐约25万地面部队，并且只能为他们提供在高强度战争中只够大约一个月消耗的武器弹药。

4 美国的作战飞机，即使全部可以执行作战任务，在战争爆发几个星期后就将无导弹可用。

5 战争爆发后数日，美国就将失去所有的空中加油机和预警机。

6 美国的攻击作战飞机在面对俄罗斯防空系统时将遭到灾难性的损失。

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